We’ve got 12 NBA games going on Monday. One of my favorite DraftKings DraftKings Sportsbook picks is from the three-game 3 p.m. ET slate, but all of my DFS breakdown will focus on Monday’s main slate, which begins at 7 p.m. ET.
Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.
Top scoring game environments on DraftKings Sportsbook
My favorite stud for Monday’s main slate comes from Jazz-Lakers, so we’ll dig into that more later. One of the better value plays of the night comes from Suns-Spurs, but there’s an injury you’ll need to watch out for from that game (see Key Injuries to Monitor).
Jordan Clarkson ($5,600) is one of my favorite value plays on the slate. His game has the highest total of the night, which is great for a player who’s fantasy production is largely based on his shooting. Additionally, the Lakers have given up the most DKFP to opposing PG this season — yet another thing that’s going well for a player that’s returned over five-times value in each of his last three games. Be sure to check in on Twitter when player props go up for Jazz-Lakers — I’ll be keeping my eye on Clarkson’s points prop.
3rd game in 4th night
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Key Injuries to Monitor
Suns C Deandre Ayton ($7,600) at Spurs
Heat C Bam Adebayo ($7,800) vs. Raptors
Trail Blazers SF Norman Powell ($7,000) at Magic
Ayton left Sunday’s game vs. the Pistons early after he sprained his ankle. Guess who registered 29 DKFP in 15 minutes of work as a result? Yep, JaVale McGee ($3,700). If you get that kind of return on Monday v. the Spurs, you’re getting back nearly eight-times value. That’s not at all out of the realm of possibility since the Spurs have given up the third-most DKFP to opposing centers this season. A McGee player prop may be worthwhile if Ayton is out, too.
As for Heat-Raptors, Tyler Herro ($7,500) has the highest usage rate on the Heat when both Adebayo and Kyle Lowry (personal, out) are both sidelined. Max Strus ($4,300) also becomes a significantly better play — another value play whose props you should track Monday. Of course, it should go without saying that Adebayo’s status has a huge impact on whether or not Omer Yurtseven ($6,800) is a viable option Monday.
Favorite Pick Against the Spread
Thunder (+10) at Mavericks
OKC is 27-14-1 ATS and has covered in six of their last seven games. The Thunder have been double-digit dogs 13 times this season, and they’ve found a way to cover in eight of those instances. The Mavs have been double-digit favorites four times this season, and they’ve only covered in one of those situations. (One of the times they didn’t was vs. OKC.) The Thunder are also 13-7 ATS as road dogs, 16-8-1 ATS playing on one day of rest and 17-8 ATS when they’ve had the same amount of rest as their opponent.
Favorite Player Prop
This is the only spot where I’m going off the main slate in the article.
Jackson had a rough go on Friday vs. the Mavericks, finishing with only eight points on 4-for-14 shooting, missing all six of his 3-point attempts. Before that dud, he’d gone over this number in four consecutive games, five of his last six and six of his last eight. Each time he’s come up short of this total in his last 10 games, Jackson has responded with either 20 points or a double-double — sometimes both. Also, the Bulls haven’t been good against opposing bigs either, and this game is tied for Monday’s third-highest total on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Favorite Value Play
Heat SG/SF Max Strus ($4,300) vs. Raptors
It’s between Clarkson and Strus for my favorite value play, but we’ve already talked about the former.
Even if Adebayo plays vs. Toronto, his presence only has so much of an impact on what Strus can produce. Plus, it’s hard to imagine the Miami big won’t have a minutes restriction.
What matters most is Strus sees the second-biggest usage bump (1.3 percentage points) on the team when Lowry is off the floor, elevating him to 20.5%. With Butler still not at his best and Adebayo (possibly) seeing his first minutes since Nov. 29, there should be even more opportunities for Strus on the offensive end.
And the reason Strus is the play over Duncan Robinson ($4,100): the latter sees a 1.9 percentage-point decrease in usage with Lowry off the floor this season.
Lakers C LeBron James ($10,900) vs. Jazz
Listing him as a center still doesn’t feel right, but here we are. James didn’t have his best night on Saturday, only finishing with 43.75 DKFP. But that was nothing more than a blip on the radar. He’s gone over 50 DKFP in eight of his last 10 games. Even if Rudy Gobert ($8,300) plays on the back-to-back, James presents the Jazz center with a bizarre matchup.
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