Just one more game between division rivals before we move onto the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. Here’s how to approach Cardinals-Rams via DraftKings Sportsbook.
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With this game set to be a shootout, both quarterbacks should throw the ball often. Both teams rank well in terms of pass defense DVOA, so it’s likely both Murray and Matthew Stafford will turn the ball over at some point. Backing Stafford to throw one at -130 is a fine play, but Murray is where I’m leaning between the two. He’s due.
Murray didn’t throw one interception in his last three games of the season, matching his longest interception-less streak of the season. He didn’t throw a pick vs. the Rams the first time he saw them, but L.A. ran away with two in the latest meeting between these two teams. And while the Cardinals (fifth) are slightly better in terms of pass defense DVOA than the Rams (sixth), only the Patriots (23) and Cowboys (26) had more interceptions than L.A. (19) this season.
Once I started thinking about this matchup, I knew I wanted to scope out Stafford’s props. I was thinking the over/under on his touchdowns would be set at 2.5, but that wasn’t the case. Not that I’m complaining, because that led us here.
Stafford has thrown two-plus touchdowns in six of his last seven games, which is why there isn’t much value to be had with the over/under set at 1.5. But when you throw in the passing yards caveat, we’re having a different conversation. The over/under on Stafford’s passing yards prop is 272.5, so we’re almost getting a 20-yard break — who isn’t happy to take that? Stafford has only logged 255-plus yards once in his last four games, but he went for 287 yards and three TDs when he saw Arizona on Dec. 13. And he only threw for seven yards and one TD fewer in their Oct. 3 meeting.
As division rivals do, these two teams met twice during the regular season. Both games managed to produce over 50 points, hitting the over in each of those meetings. We’re dealing with a pair of top-10 passing offenses, in terms of offensive pass DVOA. There are too many offensive playmakers between these two teams for this one to not be offense-heavy.
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