There’s been quite a bit of movement on this game in the last few days, but my approach has remained the same. Here’s how to approach Browns-Steelers action via DraftKings Sportsbook.
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First off, these two teams went well under this number last time they saw one another. Second, the under has hit eight times apiece for both teams this season. But let’s look a little deeper.
When the Steelers have been at home this season, the over has only hit twice in seven chances. Pittsburgh has been the underdog twice at Heinz Field this season – which is how they were initially listed — and they split the over-under between those contests. And after a Steelers loss, their ensuing games have gone under four times in six chances this season.
The Browns are also coming off a loss, and the over has hit four times in the games that followed their seven other losses this season. But in the seven times Cleveland has been favored this season, the under has hit four times. The Browns have never been road favorites this season. But in three of the seven times they’ve played outside of Cleveland, the under has hit. Given the flip-flop nature of this game and the fact the Browns haven’t had their games hit the over a convincing amount in these situations, I don’t trust Cleveland to push this game past this total.
The Steelers were underdogs when I started writing this article. DraftKings Sportsbook was giving them 3.5 points, now the Browns are getting a point on Monday. There’s no doubt in my mind the narrative is the driving force behind that, and I’m totally with it. Ben Roethlisberger is not going out with a loss in his last game at Heinz Field — especially not against the team that embarrassed the Steelers in the first round of the playoffs last season.
Big Ben has done pretty well vs. the Browns throughout his career, only losing five times to them in 35 regular season meetings. One of those wins vs. Cleveland came earlier this season in a low-scoring affair. And as much as the Steelers are now the moneyline favorite, the numbers led to them opening as underdogs. In the two instances they’ve been labeled as such at home this season, they’ve won.
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