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I’m not one to go against Brady, and he could very well go off Sunday. But that doesn’t mean he can’t make a mistake — all we need from him here is one.
Now, Brady didn’t make a mistake vs. the Rams when these two teams squared off back in September. But L.A. also didn’t force Kyler Murray to throw a pick the ensuing week either, and we saw what the Rams did to him last week. Of course, Brady vs. Murray isn’t exactly a fair comparison, but Brady did toss 12 picks in 17 games this season. Ten of those interceptions came in eight of Tampa’s last 12 games.
The Rams have a top-10 pass defense in terms of DVOA. They’re coming off a strong showing vs. Arizona. Only two teams had more interceptions than them this year (Cowboys and Patriots), and 12 of their 19 regular season interceptions came on the road.
Joe Burrow cooled off vs. the Raiders, but he still managed to feed one of his guys on Wild Card Weekend. Uzomah ripped down all six of his targets in the win, accruing 64 yards and a touchdown in the process. If you look from a DFS perspective, the Titans have been tough on opposing tight ends. However, since Week 5, eight have managed to log at least 33 yards vs. Tennessee — and another came one yard short of hitting the over on Uzomah’s prop for Saturday.
Uzomah has hit the over on this number in three of his last five games, coming up one yard short in Cincy’s first game after the calendar turned over. And while the Titans are 11th in pass defense DVOA, they allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Backing a receiver to get at least 41 rushing yards. What a time to be alive. But, if you didn’t already know, The Deebo Samuel Experience is truly something else. He’s eclipsed the mark in each of the last two games, most recently carving the Cowboys for 72 yards on 10 carries.
And Samuel will undoubtedly have his number called frequently again on Saturday in Green Bay. The Packers are 18th in rush defense DVOA. They don’t do well against opposing tight ends, but they hold their own against receivers. But the x-factor for this bet is Jimmy Garoppolo. San Francisco’s quarterback is dealing with injuries to his shoulder and thumb. Samuel can hit this regardless of Garoppolo’s state, but him being limited in any way naturally helps this pick. And if Trey Lance has to take over, he’ll still need some help.
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