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DraftKings Fantasy Football Tournament Picks: NFL Divisional Round Top High-Upside DFS Targets, Sleepers

Geoff Ulrich shares his top high-upside targets, stacks and contrarian options for this week’s main fantasy football slate on DraftKings.

Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for this week’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to focus purely on high-upside plays and stacks that are likely to be low-owned in the largest tournaments on the slate. There will be a lot of bust potential found here on most weeks, but big GPPs are generally not won by making the popular moves.


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Stacks

Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers

Aaron Rodgers ($7,100) — Davante Adams ($8,500) — George Kittle ($5,300)

We have a huge four-game Millionaire Maker on DraftKings this week, so our focus will be on the two-day slate. There’s little doubt most fantasy eyes will be on the Chiefs-Bills game, which has a 53.5 over/under and a lot of action on the over (give @SBuchanan24 a follow for the NFL splits). For fantasy purposes though, stacking a game other than the Kansas City-Buffalo matchup certainly has some game theory appeal, and that’s where my focus will be.

The Packers have a 26.75 implied team total (second biggest on the slate) and face off against a 49ers team who allowed Davante Adams to grab 12 catches, a touchdown and 132 yards on 18 targets in Week 3. If we’re being honest, not much has changed for the 49ers secondary since that game as they’ve been burned by high-end wideouts most of the season. They’ve allowed 11 touchdowns to a wide receiver over the last eight games (at least one in each game) and they’ve almost all come from the opposition’s best wideout.

Adams himself has landed four games with 30 or more DKFP in his last seven starts, and his boat is firmly attached to the anchor in the Green Bay offense that is Aaron Rodgers. Adams’ matchup not only lifts Rodgers’ upside, but Rodgers’ incredible play down the stretch (75% completion percentage and 14 TDs and no INTs in his last five games) will be unnoticed by some who only read fantasy totals. The game environment for Rodgers certainly suggests a potentially higher scoring fantasy day too, as they’re going against one of the best offenses in the league in San Francisco.

Speaking of San Francisco, the 49ers run game has been nearly impossible to shutdown and Eli Mitchell ($5,300) projects to be a popular play this week because of that fact. At some point though, the 49ers will need to air it out to keep pace with the insane efficiency of Rodgers and that’s where we could see George Kittle emerge. A slow end to the year will have many forget that Kittle is still capable of taking over games, and the veteran landed over 35 DKFP in both Week 13 and 14.

The Packers have allowed an alarming 17 of 18 targets to be completed to the tight ends in the red zone, and allowed Kittle to go for seven catches (on nine targets) and over 13 yards a catch in Week 3. The 49ers have a ton of great offensive options who could dominate this game, but Kittle is likely to be third (at best) in most DFSer’s minds when looking to this game—and he likely offers the best leverage off the popular Eli Mitchell/Deebo Samuel stacks in GPPs. With San Francisco likely to be behind late, the targets should approach or exceed Kittle’s totals from Week 3 and make him a very viable comeback play to pair with our Adams/Rodgers stack.

Just Missed: Joe Burrow ($6,600) — Ja’Marr Chase ($7,100) — Derrick Henry ($7,500)


Quarterback

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans ($6,600)

The Bengals are projected as the second biggest underdog on the slate at +3.5 on the DraftKings Sportsbook and face off against a Titans team whose opponents averaged 36.9 pass attempts this year (fourth most in the league). Tennessee’s defensive line was dominant down the stretch, and while Joe Mixon could find some room here, it’s a spot where the Bengals’ fortune is likely to fall squarely on the shoulders of Joe Burrow.

After a slow start, which saw him throw over 32 times just once in his first five games, Burrow has now averaged 36.0 attempts over his last six games. The second-year quarterback averaged 8.6 yards per attempt on the year (best in the league), and the Tennessee defense has allowed the seventh-most yards passing against this year. Regardless of how you think this game will play out, Burrow is in a spot to approach his season high in attempts and yardage, and he makes for a great upside pick.

Just Missed: Ryan Tannehill ($5,800)


Running Back

Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,500)

The Rams running back position got some clarity in their last game as Cam Akers continued his miraculous comeback by playing on over 53% of the snaps and taking 17 carries for 55 yards. Akers’ ground work wasn’t much to write home about, but his versatility showed as he was able to break a screen pass for 40 yards. For DFS, people may clue into the increased workload here, but many will likely choose to stay away due to the matchup against Tampa Bay, who have a solid rush defense by most metrics.

It’s worth noting that injuries have eroded Tampa a bit down the stretch, and they head into this game having allowed 5.1 yards per attempt over their last three games. Tampa also allowed the second-most receptions to opposing running backs this year, so a spike in targets for Akers (who also saw three targets in his first game back) wouldn't be shocking. The Rams averaged 28.6 rush attempts per game over their last three starts (ninth highest in the league), and any lead here, could see Akers go for a big day in a spot where most will be avoiding the perceived bad matchup and looking elsewhere.

Just Missed: Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,200)


Wide Receiver

Julio Jones, Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($4,700)

The return of Derrick Henry this week is certain to have many impacts in the Titans-Bengals game. He could open up the passing game for a big day from a player most have forgotten by now. Jones finally caught his first touchdown as a Titan in Week 18 and also saw his most targets of the year in that game (9). While we don't necessarily want to overreact to one decent performance, it is worth noting that Jones averaged over 19.0 yards per catch in four games between Week 2 and 7, before soft tissue injuries started to limit his availability.

Just based off his last game, Jones is likely as healthy as he’s been all season and faces a Bengals defense that will be up to its eyeballs in terms of the star power it’s up against. Cincinnati has allowed big yards over the middle of the field all season, and Jones has averaged 107 yards in his eight career playoff games. From a DFS perspective, rostership of under 15% is likely, making him a great leverage play off of Derrick Henry lineups and potentially a great contrarian target to pair with Ryan Tannehill ($5,800). There’s obvious risk involved given his mostly terrible season, but Julio’s upside under $5,000 this week is likely unparalleled.

Saturday Target: Cole Beasley ($4,000)


Tight End

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,000)

The tight end position will have some of the most concentrated ownership on the slate this week. Fading bigger names at this position isn't necessarily a strategy you have to employ, but Tyler Higbee is one name with the potential to upset the chalk. Higbee has seen a quiet uptick in his usage as the season has progressed, and he’s a player that Sean McVay hasn't been afraid to feature at times in the past.

One nice thing about Higbee is that while he doesn't always get the first looks in the passing game, if he is working early against Tampa, there’s a chance the Rams just keep looking his way. Higbee plays on virtually every snap for the Rams, and if we do finally get a slow “bust” game from Cooper Kupp, then there’s a very real scenario where Higbee ends up stealing some of that potential fantasy scoring. Low salary and low rostership are the main appeals here, but if you’re looking for a way to fill out a Matthew Stafford stack, or just want to load up on all of the expensive wide receivers, Higbee is your best option in both scenarios.

Saturday Target: Rob Gronkowski ($5,800)


Defense/Special Teams

Los Angeles Rams ($3,000) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers enter this week’s game against the Rams with numerous injuries, the most vital of which might be the questionable status of Tristan Wirfs and Ryan Jensen on their offensive line. The Buccaneers allowed the fourth-fewest sacks this year but the Rams’ pressure was unmatched, and they come in having averaged 3.3 sacks per game over their last three starts.

Los Angeles’ DST may have an advantage in the injury department, but they’ve been a great road unit all season as well. The Rams have averaged 8 DKFP per game on the road this year, and they had more sacks and turnovers in nine road games vs. their eight home games. Splits aside, this defense is coming off a great performance against one of the best athletes at his position, and they have the potential to be one of the lowest rostered defenses on the slate, given the matchup against everyone’s favorite Superbowl winner Tom Brady. The Rams are a solid unit and not getting much respect. They’re a perfect GPP target, if you can afford to slide them into your two-day lineups.

Just Missed: Bills ($2,600)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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