The Islanders come into this game with five wins over their last six starts and playing their best hockey of the season. This line looks small considering where they sit in the standings but the Coyotes are a step below New York in most facets. The Coyotes are coming off a 4-1 win but it was in a game where they needed 35 saves from their goaltender and landed four goals on just 17 shots. The Islanders’ goaltending is too solid to let them get away with that again and the worst-case scenario feels like we get an empty net sweat for the cover. Keep rolling with the Islanders.
Let’s go back to the team totals today but roll with the Pittsburgh Penguins, who have scored 32 goals in their last eight games (or 4.0 per game). We obviously need them to keep up that pace to hit the over but are getting some pretty decent odds to be on them to do it. The Penguins have both their first lines fully healthy and face off against the Blue Jackets, who have allowed the fifth-most goals and the sixth most quality scoring chances. The Penguins’ offense has a great shot at delivering for us in this spot.
Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks
Brayden Point ($7,000) — Nikita Kucherov ($8,200) — Corey Perry ($3,200)
Corey Perry hasn’t been a Duck for a few years now but it’s always significant when a veteran like himself revisits his old stomping grounds. Perry has been manning the top-line for Tampa Bay of late with their two best offensive players, which really has heightened his upside for DFS purposes. It hasn’t shown in his fantasy results much of late but he does enter this game with six points and three goals in his last 10 games.
The great thing about using Perry as a value option is that it makes the rest of the Tampa stack very easy to deploy. Any goal or big night from Perry would certainly come with helpers from either Kucherov or Point, who skated with Perry for 85% of their regular strength time in the Lightning’s last game. Both Point and Kucherov are averaging well over 3.0 shots on net and over a point-per-game over their last 10 starts, which makes for a great pair on their own against a Ducks team that has been on a slide defensively of late—and has allowed the ninth-most quality scoring chances this season.
The Lightning are big favorites and we have a good narrative to support our use of an extreme value play to pair with their big line. It’s a great time to deploy a Tampa stack in lineups today.
Superstar to Target
Roope Hintz, Dallas Stars at Detroit Red Wings ($7,100)
We often talk about Hintz as part of the Stars’ top-line in the stacking section (where they are almost always a good play), but Hintz alone looks like a great value on this slate. The center is still averaging under a point per game on the season (due to a disastrous start) but has produced 12 points in his last 10 games and is averaging 4.3 blocked shots + shots on goal over that span too. There is plenty of upper-tier talent in this range to consider on this slate but Hintz has the best price tag of this group and also may have the best matchup of his peers.
Detroit has allowed the third-most scoring chances and cedes the seventh-most shots on net. Hintz’s road splits this season have been very impressive too as he’s averaging 15.8 DKFP in 18 road starts and has 23 points over those 18 games as well. Loading up on the Stars’ first line isn’t a terrible idea at all but if you can only fit in one name, go with Hintz, who has been a near-lock on the road.
Value on Offense
Oliver Wahlstrom, New York Islanders vs. Arizona Coyotes ($4,300)
The Islanders’ offense has landed three or more goals in five of their last six games and it’s plenty fine to go hunting for value in their top-six at this point against a team like the Coyotes. Wahlstrom has been a favorite target before as he averages well over 3.0 shots on goal (3.3 over his last 10 games) and is in a role with New York that sees him play in the top-six and on the PP1. Seeing him break out for a goal or decent game would not be shocking in the slightest. He’s averaging 11.2 DKFP over his last 10 games, making him good value just on a recent production vs. price basis alone.
Carter Verhaeghe, Florida Panthers at Vancouver Canucks ($4,500)
The Panthers’ offense got right back on track last night, pummeling the helpless Oilers for six goals. Verhaeghe has developed into one of the best value options in DFS lately as his sub-$5K salary belies a player who gets solid minutes on the top-line for Florida alongside one of the league’s best in Aleksander Barkov. Verhaeghe has averaged 3.3 shots per game and 13.3 DKFP over his last 10 starts and has a very plus matchup against Vancouver, who has the worst penalty-kill in the league.
Frederik Andersen, Carolina Hurricanes vs. New York Rangers ($8,300)
The Hurricanes aren’t facing slouches in the Rangers, but that hasn’t stopped them from being labeled as -205 favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Hurricanes have outscored their opponents 11-2 in their last two games since getting embarrassed by the Blue Jackets and have been getting solid goaltending from Andersen all season. Andersen enters this game having stopped 61 of his last 63 shots faced and has a sterling .932 save percentage at home this season.
The records between these two teams are close, but the Rangers still rank out with the fourth-worst expected goal rate at 5v5 on the season and face a good special teams unit in the Hurricanes. Andersen is in a good spot to continue to excel for fantasy purposes and may not even be that highly-owned in this spot given the respect people give to the Rangers.
Value on Defense
Mikhail Sergachev, Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks ($3,900)
The Lightning come into this game having scored 19 goals in their last four games. Like many of the other Eastern Conference powers, the Lightning have been flexing their muscles of late against the weaker teams of the West and they get a great matchup today against a sliding Ducks team. Sergachev has moved into a solid top-four role on the blueline for Tampa where he still gets solid power-play minutes every game.
The Russian is averaging over 0.5 points per game and 3.1 shots on goal + blocked shots over his last 10 games. He’s great value at under $4,000 whenever Tampa is on the slate but especially here where we have him matched up against a weaker opponent.
Noah Dobson, New York Islanders vs. Arizona Coyotes ($5,700)
There are plenty of big names we can pay up for on defense today as both Kris Letang ($7,300) and Aaron Ekblad ($6,600) are in fantastic spots. Saving cash on defense today though is a pretty viable option too as there are a plethora of great forwards in play. One way to accomplish that goal is to take the discount available on Islanders power-play specialist Noah Dobson. The Coyotes have the fourth-worst penalty-kill in the league, so Dobson’s point potential is obviously heightened.
He’s been on ice for over 70% of the power-play opportunities for the Islanders over their last three games and is averaging an elite 4.3 blocked shots + shots on goal over his last 10 games as well. Dobson’s in a great spot to end a four-game pointless streak in style and carries as good upside as there is on defense today (for a very palatable price).
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