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NBA Betting, Fantasy Advice: DraftKings Basketball DFS Picks, Predictions, Odds for January 21

Matt LaMarca breaks down Friday’s NBA slate with game analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

The NBA Cheat Sheet provides an in-depth look at Friday’s slate, featuring DraftKings DFS and Sportsbook picks.

Follow along on Twitter (@dklive) for updates.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $350K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st]


Top Scoring Game Environments on DraftKings Sportsbook

Nets @ Spurs233
Rockets @ Warriors 228
Bulls @ Bucks 227.5

Friday’s game between the Nets and Spurs stands out as the clear top target from a fantasy perspective. Not only does it lead the slate with a 233-point total, but the Nets are listed as just one-point road favorites. That suggests a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair with plenty of scoring on both sides.

Rockets-Warriors owns the second-highest total on the slate, but there are obviously some blowout concerns in this spot. The Warriors have shown some signs of regression after starting the season red hot, and they will rest Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala in this matchup. Still, they can absolutely blow the doors of the Rockets, and they’re listed as 10.5-point favorites. The Warriors have massive upside if this game stays competitive — the Rockets rank first in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency — but there’s no guarantee that happens.

The same can be said of Bulls-Bucks. The Bulls are another team in bad shape at the moment. They’ve dropped five of their past seven games, and they’re going to have to survive without Zach LaVine (knee) and Lonzo Ball (knee) for an extended period. The Bucks haven’t been the same juggernaut that they’ve been during previous regular seasons, but this game also features a 10.5-point spread.


Scheduling Notes

3rd game in 4th night

Pistons, Warriors

First leg of back-to-back

Bucks, Thunder

Second leg of back-to-back

Warriors


Key Injuries to Monitor

Hawks C Clint Capela ($7,900) vs. Heat

For an 11-game slate, the injury report is surprisingly light on big names. Capela is the most prominent player who currently owns a questionable tag, and he’s missed the Hawks’ past six games due to an ankle injury. His return would be a big blow to the stock of Onyeka Okongwu ($5,400), who has thrived in Capela’s absence. He’s racked up at least 34.0 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s responded with at least 46.1 DKFP in both. Okongwu has gotten significantly more expensive over that time frame, so he would be unplayable if Capela is back in the lineup.

Trail Blazers SF/PF Nassir Little ($5,200) at Celtics

The Blazers are currently without Damian Lillard (abdomen) and Norman Powell (personal), and Little has assumed a larger role with both players out of the lineup. However, he left their last game after just 12.2 minutes, and he’s currently questionable for Friday’s matchup vs. the Celtics. If he’s unable to suit up, Robert Covington ($5,900) should see all the minutes he can handle. He played nearly 38 minutes in the Blazers’ last game and has averaged 0.93 DKFP per minute over the past month.


Favorite Pick Against the Spread

Heat (+1.5) at Hawks

The Heat are at far from full strength at the moment, with Kyle Lowry (personal) and Tyler Herro (health protocols) both expected to miss Friday’s contest vs. the Hawks. However, they will have Jimmy Butler ($9,400) and Bam Adebayo ($7,500) in the lineup, which is something they haven’t had much of this season.

That combination should be enough to push them past the lowly Hawks. Butler’s impact on the Heat is well documented. The Heat were at their best with him on the floor last season, increasing their net rating by +10.6 points per 100 possessions. That put him in the 96th percentile per Cleaning the Glass. Adebayo wasn’t quite as impactful, but he’s a versatile big man who can impact the game on both ends of the floor. He put his full skill set on display in his last contest, finishing with 20 points, 11 rebounds, four assists, five steals and three blocks.

The sharps seem to agree that the Heat are the correct side in this matchup. The Heat have received 55% of the spread bets, but they’ve accounted for 75% of the spread dollars.


Favorite Player Prop

Day’Ron Sharpe Under 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)

Sharpe is a high-impact player when on the court, which has made him an appealing fantasy punt play of late. However, his role with the team is dwindling. LaMarcus Aldridge ($5,200) returned to the lineup recently, which limited Sharpe to just 15.9 minutes in his last outing. Sharpe still managed to secure 14 points, six boards and two assists in that contest, but that stands out as a major outlier. If he’s going to see such minimal playing time moving forward, he should be expected to hit the under on this prop pretty consistently.


Favorite Stud

Grizzlies PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr. ($6,300) at Nuggets

Jackson is one of my favorite plays on the entire slate. He’s massively underpriced at just $6.3K for the shorthanded Grizzlies. He’s been arguably the biggest beneficiary with Dillon Brooks (ankle), Desmond Bane (health protocols) and Kyle Anderson (health protocols) off the floor this season. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of 5.0 percentage points in that situation, resulting in an average of 1.50 DKFP per minute. That represents a massive increase from his season average of 1.13 DKFP, and he racked up 48.75 DKFP in 31.2 minutes with all three players out of the lineup on Wednesday.


Favorite Value Play

Heat PG Gabe Vincent ($4,800) at Hawks

Vincent stands out as an excellent source of value at point guard on Friday. He’s started in place of Lowry recently, and he’s coming off nearly 37 minutes in his last game. Vincent has averaged 0.85 DKFP per minute over the past month, so he’s capable of taking advantage of a few additional minutes.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $350K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st]


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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