UNC -4.5 (-110) — 1.5-units
The Tar Heels are coming off a pair of embarrassing blowout losses, and a lot of people are writing them off. That sets up the ultimate bounce-back spot if they’re going to have one.
The numbers for UNC lately are not pretty — 22 and 28 point road losses on Tuesday and Saturday. But this team has been completely different when it comes to play at home versus road/neutral games. This team is just 3-6 straight up and 2-7 ATS away from the Dean Smith Center. At home, the Heels have been decent to cover at 5-4 ATS, but are a perfect 9-0 straight up.
I’m willing to lay the points here, with UNC in need of a convincing victory in this spot. VT has gone 3-4 SU/ATS on the road this season, with the four losses coming over their last five on the road. After a good start to the season, the Hokies are on a 1-5 ATS skid, and head into a game that has historically been difficult for them. VT has lost it’s last seven road games at UNC, and are just 1-5 ATS in the last six overall in this matchup.
Good buy-low spot on the more talented team. Expect UNC to have some advantages in both the backcourt and interior. Heels need this one and should run away with it at home to try and save their season.
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