The Farmers Insurance Open returns this week, and as usual, it brings with it an elite field. Six of the world’s top-10 golfers in the OWGR are in the event, including world No. 1 Jon Rahm. This event is hosted by Torrey Pines South, a venue that was also used to host last year’s US Open in June. The event features two courses on the first two days of play (each player will play the North and South once apiece) and then switches to the South for the final two days of play.
From a DFS perspective, this event has traditionally brought tons of volatility. The mix of cool weather, multiple courses and a tough venue all work to make “ejections” somewhat common among the big names. Torrey South ranked as the 7th hardest venue on the PGA TOUR last year and it’s one of the longest on TOUR as well at over 7,500 yards. While great drivers often carry a big advantage at Torrey, some of the best scramblers in the world always seem to prosper here as well. Patrick Reed gained over +8.0 strokes putting and around the greens combined at this event last season and Marc Leishman and Jason Day put in similar performances to grab wins here too.
This field at this event has lower greens in regulation percentage (by over 5%) than the PGA TOUR average for the year and it’s likely caused by the fact Torrey Pines’ par 4s and 5s produce a ton of 200+ yard approaches. Looking for players who are trending not only in SG: Approach then, but also long iron proximity (from 175 yards+), is a good way to dive deeper into the regular stats this week. Blend that with some sharp short game play and good historical Poa Annua putting stats and you likely have the profile of a player who can find success this week.
Following the first 36 holes, there will be a standard top-65 and ties cut, and below are four of my favorite DraftKings value plays under $7.5K for the Farmers Insurance Open.
Cameron Davis, $7,300
The Australian had a solid opening couple of events in Hawaii, landing T10 and T27 finishes at the year’s first two events. The big hitter has gained strokes around the greens in four straight starts, which is a big plus on a venue like Torrey, where the entire field will be scrambling more than usual. He’s played Torrey Pines four times in the past and has never missed the cut at this event. Davis gained an absurd +9.6 strokes ball-striking at this event last season and if he can figure out the greens this week he could challenge here on Sunday in what is often a close final round. His high birdie/eagle rate (first in eagles gained over the last 50 rounds) also makes him a near must play on DraftKings (at under $7,500) with four par 5s in play.
Patrick Rodgers, $7,100
Course experience certainly counts for a little something this week with a classic West coast venue in play. Patrick Rodgers not only graduated and played his college golf at Stanford, but also has landed some of his best finishes on TOUR while on this part of the continent. He has missed the cut at this event in four of the last six years, but those two made cuts produced T2 and T9 finishes. Much like Reed last year, you’ll likely need a great week of putting from Rodgers if he’s going to land another top finish, but he’s coming off a solid ball-striking week the Amex (T44) and ranks ninth in strokes gained putting on Poa over the last 50 rounds in this field.
Brandt Snedeker, $7,400
Despite the venue being one of the longest on TOUR, veterans like Brandt Snedeker still seem to be able to thrive at Torrey Pines. Sharp around the green play and the ability to sink a few extra five to 10 footers counts for a lot this week and no one putts better on this surface than Snedeker (seriously, he’s ranked first in strokes gained putting on Poa). Snedeker has now played this event 12 times and has produced three finishes of T3 or better with two wins. He’s showed some consistent off the tee play in his first two starts (both made cuts) and seems likely to pick up his play this week on greens he’s mastered over the years.
Stephan Jaeger, $6,500
The highly volatile yet talented Stephan Jaeger isn’t a pick for the faint of heart. After all, this is a player who has six missed cuts in his last nine PGA TOUR starts. Jaeger may be inconsistent, but he’s also talented and the six-time Korn Ferry Tour winner has the kind of short game that can make up for his deficiencies in other areas at Torrey. Jaeger ranks first in SG: Around the Green stats over the last 50 rounds and has shown better iron play of late, having gained strokes on approach in his last two starts. He’s played Torrey Pines three times prior and was in the mix at the halfway point here at the US Open in 2021, before falling back to T34 for the week. Jaeger’s a player to watch in the in-play odds on DraftKings Sportsbook this week and is a great boom or bust GPP target for big fields.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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