Despite the fact that Tuesday is generally the slowest night of the week on the NBA calendar, we’ve got a whopping nine games to sort through this evening. That means plenty of star power and plenty of tantalizing matchups.
Let’s go position-by-position and dive into the numbers.
Dejounte Murray, San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets, $10,000 - When in doubt, just pick on the Rockets. It’s a loaded slate for the point guard position, but Murray still manages to stand out. Not only has the guard averaged a massive 1.52 DKFP per minute going back to Jan. 12 — a stretch that includes a 73.5 DKFP performance against this same Houston team — but this matchup is just too tempting to overlook. In fact, the Rockets have surrendered the second-most DKFP per game to opposing PGs.
Patty Mills, Brooklyn Nets vs. Los Angeles Lakers, $4,900 - There’s no Kevin Durant (knee) and no Kyrie Irving (personal) for the Nets this evening, which should open up some usage for a secondary scoring option like Mills. Heck, even with Irving available for Brooklyn’s past four contests, Mills has logged 33.5 minutes per game, so you know volume isn’t a concern. Mills has also exceeded 30.0 DKFP each of the last two times the Nets have played without Irving in Brooklyn.
Tyrese Haliburton, Sacramento Kings at Boston Celtics, $7,400 - Haliburton is viable at this price regardless of the eventual status of De’Aaron Fox ($7,300; ankle); however, if Fox is indeed ruled out, Haliburton’s isn’t just a solid play, he’s a must-play. The sophomore went off for 53.5 DKFP without his teammate in the lineup on Saturday, registering a 24-point, 12-assist double-double in 38.4 minutes of action. It makes sense, as Haliburton is averaging 1.16 DKFP per minute with Fox off the floor since the beginning of January.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker, New Orleans Pelicans at Philadelphia 76ers, $3,700 - Another spot where you’ll have to wait for the final injury report. The Pelicans are on the second night of a back-to-back and the status of Brandon Ingram ($8,200; ankle) is a huge question mark after the former lottery pick was sidelined for Monday’s victory. Now, Alexander-Walker didn’t start in Ingram’s place; yet he did finish the game with 30.25 DKFP in 34.0 minutes. Garrett Temple ($3,300) is another option to consider here, though his ceiling is lower than Alexander-Walker’s.
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Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves at Portland Trail Blazers, $7,600 - Edwards has not been playing his best basketball over his last three games, yet this feels like an opportunity to buy-low on the former first-overall pick. Like, literally. Edwards was $1,000 more expensive than his current price tag just seven days ago, following a stretch that saw the forward exceed 40.0 DKFP in five of six starts. Edwards’ ceiling might be even higher in a matchup with the Blazers, as the Timberwolves own the second-highest implied team total on tonight’s slate.
Andrew Wiggins, Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks, $6,100 - This might not count as a “value” play for everybody, but I think it’s worth noting that this is Wiggins’ lowest price tag since early November. The Canadian wing hasn’t exactly been tearing it up as of late, but with Draymond Green (calf) still out and Klay Thompson ($5,600; knee) questionable for tonight’s festivities, Wiggins should have access to all the shots and minutes he can handle. Thompson’s potential absence is particularly important, as Wiggins’ usage rate has fallen from 24.5% before Klay’s return to just 20.2% since Jan. 9.
Pascal Siakam, Toronto Raptors vs. Charlotte Hornets, $8,900 - If there’s two things that are consistently true to NBA DFS, it’s that the Hornets are a fantastic matchup and that Nick Nurse maximizes his starters. Because Charlotte operates at the Eastern Conference’s quickest pace (101.0) — and owns the league’s fifth-worst defensive rating — it’s conceded the second-most DKFP per game to opposing power forwards so far this season. Meanwhile, Siakam is averaging an insane 40.4 minutes across his last eight starts. The combination of those two factors could be explosive.
Keldon Johnson, San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets, $5,000 - Johnson is more of a cash game asset than a GPP stud, but his path to 5x value on Tuesday is pretty clear. Not only does San Antonio own this slate’s highest implied team total by a wide margin, but Johnson’s been a picture of consistency, exceeding 26.0 DKFP in six of his last seven contests. He also hasn’t reached 30.0 DKFP in a month, yet a matchup with Houston might elevate Johnson’s usually modest ceiling.
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets at Detroit Pistons, $12,500 - I think the only difference between what Jokic did to the Pistons on Sunday and what he’s going to do to the Pistons tonight, is that he’ll probably end up with the triple-double this time around. Jokic is averaging an eye-popping 1.84 DKFP per minute over his last four starts. It’s a number so ridiculous that my mind can barely comprehend it. You have to find the salary to use Jokic on Tuesday.
Richaun Holmes, Sacramento Kings at Boston Celtics, $4,600 - To be frank, I just think Holmes is a better asset than this price tag presents. The big man was obviously impacted by a prolonged stay in the league’s health and safety protocols, but Holmes should be close to full-speed tonight, now three games removed from his initial return to the Kings’ lineup. Plus, Holmes dropped 32.25 DKFP in just 24.3 minutes his last time on the court, reminding everyone just how impactful he can be.
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