All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
The NBA is in a wild place right now. It’s tough to place bets early in the day unless you feel very confident that COVID news will not change anything significant. For Monday’s card, I have my eye on a side and a prop in the early going.
Per usual, I’ll put everything official up on Twitter that I bet on personally. This is a betting guide for this NBA card, and anything I’ve actually bet will include a unit amount.
MIL 1H -9 (-115) — 2-units
I put this one out on Twitter on Monday morning, and we’ve seen some movement up to -9.5. I think playing it up to 9.5 is about my limit. This is similar to one of the Milwaukee 1H caps that I put out last week — just a very good 1H team that’s healthy going up against a bad team that’s missing key pieces.
The Bucks and Pistons have met two times this season, both in November. The first matchup was in Detroit while the Pistons were at full strength. That meant having vets like Jerami Grant and Kelly Olynyk in the lineup, both of whom are out on Monday. Meanwhile, the Bucks were down both Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton, but had no issues — Milwaukee led 57-39 at halftime.
The second meeting was in Milwaukee, and the Bucks’ backcourt returned, but the Pistons did still have Grant. Despite being more competitive, the Bucks coasted again, taking a 64-52 lead into the locker room.
Middleton is questionable for this game for personal reasons. He already missed one game, and my expectation is that he’ll return, but his availability would only be gravy on this play. The Bucks are the second best 1H squad in the NBA at 24-14 1H ATS, including 12-6 1H ATS at home.
I haven’t locked this one in quite yet, but with the lineup news for Houston, it’s going to be tough to pass up on. My concern here Green being benched in a blowout, but he seems to have the potential to still play deep into the game, especially down so many pieces.
The handicap here is very simple. After a mess of a game the last time out for the Rockets, both Christian Wood and Kevin Porter Jr. are suspended for this game. That takes nearly 30 points per game off the floor, not to mention Eric Gordon and his 14.6 points are also questionable. That just leaves so much volume for the No. 2 overall pick, even if it’s on the road against a solid Philly defense.
Green’s already averaging 15.5 points, so tacking on just one point to his prop with this lineup seems very light. Over the last four contests, Green’s averaging 22.25 points, finishing on 20, 24, 16 and 29. The 29 points on New Year’s Day came in the game that Wood only played eight minutes off the bench and Porter played 16 minutes before leaving the game at halftime after an outburst. That’s very encouraging for Green’s outlook in this one.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), or 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat. (CT).
21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/MI/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.