The first tournament of the season is the Sentry Tournament of Champions. This season, 39 of last year’s 40 champions, sans Rory McIlroy, are teeing it up in Maui, Hawaii, at the Plantation Course in Kapalua.
Over the past five years, the average winning score is 21-under par, with 2020 being the lowest at 14-under (Justin Thomas) and Harris English scoring the highest last season at 25-under. Speaking of past winners, the average winning odds over the same timeframe is +1800, with English as the highest at +3300 and Dustin Johnson being the lowest at +650 in 2018.
For a full course preview, key statistics breakdown and additional players to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook, refer to the DraftKings Preview on DraftKings Playbook. Here are the bets we should be considering this week.
All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
While Bryson DeChambeau (+1200) is my preferred pick in this range, Cantlay deserves a look. He’s +EV at this price, especially coming off two wins in the playoffs (BMW Championship, TOUR Championship) and his FedExCup champion season. Speaking of the BMW Championship, he gained 14.58 strokes putting en route to his victory. While we shouldn’t expect him to replicate his putting dominance this week, the Plantation Course is one of the few places where SG: Putting is the predominant stat, and Cantlay ranks seventh on the greens in the previous 50 rounds. Cantlay hasn’t lost strokes on Kapalua’s greens in his three visits, and ranks first in SG: Par 4 over the last 50 rounds. His ball-striking is always consistent, and is gaining over a stroke per round in Tee-to-Green over his past five seasons (rickrungood.com); his value may be too good to pass up on this week.
The mullet wasn’t the only bright spot for the young Aussie last season. Smith was able to put together an impressive 2021 with four top-5s, winning the Zurich Classic with his good mate Marc Leishman, and jumping six spots in the OWGR to just outside the Top-20. The Sentry TOC will be one of the strongest fields this season, and Smith played extremely well in similar tournaments last year, finishing runner up at the Masters in 2020 and 10th the following year, 9th at the CJ Cup, fifth at the WGC-St. Jude Invitational, fourth at the Genesis Invitational and runner up at THE NORTHERN TRUST. His driving woes won’t affect him at the Plantation Course, and he’ll be able to lean on his approach and putting, ranking 12th and first respectively over the previous 50 rounds. A previous winner in Hawai’i (2020 Sony Open), Smith should feel comfortable in the islands.
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The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
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