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Fantasy Football Picks: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 18

Stan Son gives his top studs and value plays at each position for Sunday’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

Week 18. The last week of the regular season. Sad face. The main NFL slate will consist of 13 games as there are two games on Saturday with no Monday night game this week.

Per DraftKings Sportsbook, there are zero games with a total of at least 50 points. There are three games with a total of 40 or below: WAS/NYG (37.5), NO/ATL (39.5) and NE/MIA (40). There are three double-digit favorites: IND -15 over JAX, TEN -10.5 over HOU and BUF -16.5 over NYJ.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings slate.


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Quarterback

Stud

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks, $7,400 — The Cardinals could end up as the 2, 3 or 5 seed depending on the outcome of Sunday’s games so they do have something to play for. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Cardinals favored by seven points at home with the total at 48 points, so touchdowns should be scored. The Seahawks have been good against the run (eighth in DVOA) but are 27th in pass defense DVOA so there is a clear path of least resistance. The Seahawks would like to ground and pound but will get aggressive if forced to. If Murray can light up the scoreboard, then this game could turn into a back-and-forth affair. The Cardinals’ offense hasn’t been the same without DeAndre Hopkins but Murray has gone for at least 20 DKFP in four of the five games since returning from injury with a high of 30.82. The rushing prowess always provides a high floor and a ceiling game can be accessed if this game shoots out.

Other Option – Taysom Hill ($6,200)

Value

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens, $5,400 — I don’t like the cheap options at the position this weekend so.....puke.....Roethlisberger it is. PUKE. The Steelers are 25th in run blocking according to PFF while the Ravens are sixth in rush defense DVOA. In addition, Baltimore is 30th in pass defense DVOA so things should tilt towards the pass in this one for the Steelers. Roethlisberger faced Baltimore five weeks ago and went 21-of-31 for 236 yards and two touchdowns which translated to 19.34 DKFP.


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Running Back

Stud

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars, $9,300 — The price tag is high, especially for a running back who isn’t heavily involved in the passing game, so there is merit to fading him. Projected ownership and roster construction will be huge variables. That said, the game script should be a favorable one as DraftKings Sportsbook has the Colts favored by 15 points on the road in a win-and-in scenario. Taylor has scored 20 total touchdowns on the season with 18 of those on the ground. He has 87 red-zone carries and four multi-touchdown games. He’s received at least 20 carries in six of the last seven games and gone for over 100 yards in all but one. In the first three weeks, he went for 17.6, 6.3 and 8.2 DKFP. Since then, he’s gone for at least 20 DKFP in 11 of 13 games with four of those over 30 and a high of 56.4.

Other Options – Dalvin Cook ($7,800), Alvin Kamara ($8,300), David Montgomery ($6,800)

Value

Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets, $6,000 – DraftKings Sportsbook has the Bills favored by 16.5 points at home. There is plenty to play for as a win secures the AFC East title. Over the last three games, Singletary has taken the reigns of the backfield and rushed 23, 12 and 22 times. He’s gone over 100 yards once and scored two, one and one touchdowns. The passing game involvement has been inconsistent as he’s received one, six, one and seven targets over the last four games but game script had something to do with that. The most important numbers are the nine, five and five red-zone rushes he’s had. There should be plenty of those this week as the Falcons are 30th in rush defense DVOA.

Other Options – Antonio Gibson ($5,800), D’Onta Foreman ($5,700)


Wide Receiver

Stud

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers, $9,700 — This is beyond ridiculous at this point. This is akin to the Randy Moss season of 2007. You knew Moss was going to get the targets and score two touchdowns. And he did on most weeks. Kupp leads the league with 184 targets. He won’t surpass Marvin Harrison’s 205 back in 2002, but it’s still impressive nonetheless. Kupp has at least 10 targets in every game but two. Despite the high price tag for most of the season, he’s exceeded point expectations 70% of the time. He’s scored at least 25.0 DKFP in 10 games this season with six performances above 30.0 DKFP and a high of 40.6 DKFP. The craziest thing is that I haven’t had to edit this blurb much in the last three weeks or so. Now, there is some merit to fading him due to the high cost, as he needs to essentially score 40.0 DKFP to make you regret not playing him. Plus, Odell Beckham ($5,800) and Van Jefferson ($5,100) are other viable options to get exposure to the Rams' passing attack. That said, Kupp provides the raw points floor and he’s shown the ability to post a “have to have it” score.

Other Options – Justin Jefferson ($8,100), Diontae Johnson ($7,600), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,800), Christian Kirk ($6,000)

Value

Ray-Ray McCloud, Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens, $3,800 – Well, I like Roethlisberger and expect the Steelers to lean towards the air this weekend. Over the last five games, McCloud has played in 67%, 85%, 67%, 63% and 65% of the snaps, garnering four, eight, three, eight and 10 targets. He hasn’t exceeded 35 yards receiving so the ceiling is low but he’s gotten a total of four red-zone targets.

Other Options – Marquez Callaway ($5,000)


Tight End

Stud

Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks, $5,300 – Murray is my favorite quarterback so it only makes sense that I’m going to recommend his pass catchers. Over the last four games, Ertz has received nine, 13, 11 and seven targets. The yardage hasn’t been robust, exceeding 55 yards only once with zero touchdowns. That said, he has received one, one, two and two red-zone targets and now faces a Seahawks team that has allowed the fourth-most touchdowns to the position.

Other Option – Pat Freiermuth ($4,600)

Value

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals, $3,200 – Njoku played in 72% of the snaps last week. He received four targets with one red-zone look. Austin Hooper ($3,600) played in 49% of the snaps and received five targets with one red-zone look. The Bengals have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points, targets and touchdowns to the position.


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Buccaneers DST, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers, $4,000 – Tampa Bay is 12th in rush defense DVOA and eighth in pass defense. They blitz at the fifth-highest rate and are 10th in adjusted sack rate. The Panthers are 31st in pass blocking. Yikes. These teams met two weeks ago and the Bucs racked up seven sacks and one interception while holding Carolina to six points. That was good for 16 DKFP. The unit has gone for double-digit DKFP six times this season and a similar outcome could be in the works this weekend.

Other Options – Colts DST ($3,800)

Value

WAS Football Team DST, Washington Football Team @ New York Giants, $3,100 – Mike Glennon. Jake Fromm. Do I need to continue? Fine. The Giants have mustered 108 and -10 yards passing over the last two games. HAHAHAHA! Glennon went 4-of-11 for 24 yards last week with two interceptions and four sacks. The week before, Glennon and Fromm threw two interceptions and took two sacks. The Giants are 28th in pass blocking while Washington is 14th in pass rush. The Football Team is 29th in coverage but I have a hard time believing that the Giants can take advantage.

Other Option – Rams DST ($3,100)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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