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Fantasy Football Picks: Chargers vs. Raiders DraftKings NFL DFS SNF Showdown Strategy

Reid Fowler preps you for Sunday’s 8:20 p.m. ET contest between the Chargers and the Raiders with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

The final Sunday night regular season showdown contest is an AFC West battle between the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders. If the Indianapolis Colts beat the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, this becomes a “win and get in” situation. Let’s take a look at this game from a showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.2M Sunday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (LAC vs LV)



SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Austin Ekeler ($17,400 CP) - Ekeler is vital to the Chargers’ success and should be a focal point in this matchup. He’s averaging 109 total yards in his five previous matchups against AFC West teams, with at least one touchdown in every game and two against the Raiders in Week 4. Ekeler has registered 15 total red-zone carries over the previous four games and hasn’t finished outside the top 15 at the running back position since Week 10. The Raiders boast the ninth-best rush defense per DVOA but allow the fourth-most DKFP per game to opposing backfields (28.2). They’ve allowed six receiving touchdowns to the position as well, which is the third most this season.

Josh Jacobs ($11,700 CP) - The Raiders have a better chance of winning if they take the air out of the ball. If that’s the case and he’s healthy (dealing with a ribs injury), Jacobs could be in line for a lot of work against the league’s worst rush defense per rush DVOA. Jacobs only went for 10.7 DKFP in Week 4 against Los Angeles, but he has eight red-zone attempts over his previous two games and he is averaging five targets over his last five games. If this becomes a shootout, look for the Raiders to rely more on Jacobs; he saw 78% of the snaps during the two-minute drill last week and participated in a little less than 50% of the routes in the previous three weeks. The backfield split isn’t ideal for Jacobs; Jalen Richard ($300 CP, $200) did see 92% of the long-down-and-distance snaps and 20% of overall snaps. Peyton Barber ($1,500 CP, $1,000) has been spelling Jacobs on early downs, but he only recorded 17% of the snaps in Week 17. Still, Jacobs is their best running back, and the Raiders will need him to play well if they want any chance of winning this game.


FLEX Plays

Justin Herbert ($11,400) - The Raiders may elect to slow this game down, but it may not matter because no team passes it more than the Chargers in every game situation, per PFF.com (trailing by four points, within three points and leading by four or more points). Sure, you can captain Herbert, but the Raiders aren’t giving up a ton of DKFP per game to opposing quarterbacks (17.9). Herbert hasn’t given us that ceiling game since Week 11, but he has seven top-10 finishes at the position in his previous nine games with four games inside the top 5 in DKFP. This season, the Raiders have the lowest interception rate of any passing defense, which helps the offense stay on track and move the chains.

Zay Jones ($6,400) - If this becomes a shootout and Darren Waller ($13,800 CP, $9,200) can’t go on Sunday, Jones becomes an exciting play. He has target shares of 25%, 29% and 31% in his previous three games, with Jones posting two top-20 games at the wide receiver position over the last three weeks. Jones becomes less attractive if Waller is in, and shares of Jones should move to Hunter Renfrow ($12,600 CP, $8,400). Renfrow has seen 100% of the end-zone targets over the past two games.


Fades

Mike Williams ($10,800 CP, $7,200) - Even with a top-20 finish from the big man last week, Williams only saw an 11% target share, which was less than half of what he saw back in Week 15. The inconsistency may be too much to stomach at this price point, especially when he’ll be up against Casey Hayward Jr., who held him to one reception for 11 yards back in Week 4. Hayward Jr. is questionable coming into this game; we should feel much more comfortable playing Williams if Hayward Jr. is out.


THE OUTCOME

The Chargers have been an enigma all season, and it’s been challenging to figure out which team will show up on game day. Will it be the one that gave up 41 points to the Houston Texans in a loss or the team that beat the Bengals by putting up 41 on the road? The Raiders are on a three-game winning streak but are averaging just 16 points a game over their previous five, while the Chargers are putting up just under 34 points per contest over the same timeframe. The Raiders have a better chance of winning if they slow this game down instead of besting the Chargers in a shootout, but they might not have a choice with how potent the Chargers’ offense has looked over the past month and how suspect both defenses have been all season. Taking my Raiders fandom out of the objective analysis, the Chargers are the better team on both sides of the ball and are coming in a little healthier. Still, you better believe I’ll (not so) secretly be rooting for my Raiders to win.

Final Score: Los Angeles Chargers 31, Las Vegas Raiders 24

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.2M Sunday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (LAC vs LV)


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The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.


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