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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Now, I wouldn’t normally be talking about a prop bet that’s juiced up at -150. However, the NORMAL line on this is set at 6.5 at +100. SO! What you need to do is on DraftKings Sportsbook, you want to go to the “DK Promotions” and then the “Incentive Week Specials.” In this section, they have the 5.5 line for Diggs, who need six receptions to hit 100 on the season. Doing so triggers a $750,000 bonus added to his base salary, so you better believe Josh Allen is going to ensure his guy gets at least six catches in this game.
The spread is massive for the Bills against the Jets so if they have a comfortable lead, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them rest their starters, which is why I’m not looking to take the over 6.5 at +100. This feels like one of the safer plays on the board which has a lot of uncertainty. Earlier this season against the Jets, Diggs had eight catches on 13 targets for a whopping 162 yards and a touchdown. None of the Jets corners had an answer for Diggs, as he made at least two catches on three of them, including Brandin Echols, who he went for 63 yards against on two catches. I would be downright shocked if Diggs didn’t have six catches in this game and then rests after that. Needless to say, I’m happy to pay the juice on this.
I really love Bateman this week going up against the Steelers. The Ravens are once again rolling with Tyler Huntley at quarterback and that should be viewed as a good thing for Bateman. When Huntley has started, Bateman has averaged 6.5 targets in those games, including a season-high 10 last week against the Rams. Now, the downfall to Huntley being under center is that he’s not as efficient as a downfield passer like Lamar Jackson is. Nonetheless, we’ve seen Bateman go over this number six times and has a great chance to do so against the Steelers. In coverage, Bateman will be matched up against CB Cameron Sutton, who has allowed a 67.2% reception rate and an average of 13 YPR. If Bateman is going to continue to see this type of volume with Huntley, Bateman over 33.5 yards should go over in this spot.
Soon to be former head coach Matt Nagy announced on Friday that Andy Dalton would be starting the final game of the regular season the Bears, as Justin Fields is on the COVID list. That’s good news for Mooney, has been the preferred target when Dalton is under center. Dalton has made five starts, which sees Mooney average 10.4 targets and 81 receiving yards. That average with Dalton blows past the over/under on his receiving yards this week and I expect the volume to be heavy. Earlier this season, with Justin Fields under center, Mooney made five catches for 63 yards. Most of his damage came against slot corner Mackensie Alexander, as he gained 40 yards on just two catches. Mooney spends 41% of his snaps in the slot, so getting this matchup nearly half the time is ideal.
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