Pebble Beach needs a remodel. No, not of course or property, but the field. Only one top-10, three top-20 and 10 top-50 golfers in the world are teeing it up in Monterey Bay, a far cry from what this place deserves. The lack of superstar win equity is the main reason we’ve seen the average winning odds over the previous seven years be +14800, with the shortest coming from Jordan Spieth at +700 and the longest coming from Ted Potter Jr. at +50000 in 2018. This week is another tournament where longshots are viable and should be the bulk of our betting card this week.
It’s important to reiterate the tournament will be played across three courses, similar to The American Express a couple of weeks ago. Weather will play a factor in scoring if the winds pick up. With half of the holes on Pebble Beach set along Carmel Bay, the tournament’s difficulty can shift year-to-year and at a moment’s notice per the weather conditions. In 2014, Pebble Beach played as the seventh most difficult in scoring with extremely windy conditions; the following year, it played as the eighth easiest with virtually no wind.
For a full course preview, key statistics breakdown and additional players to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook, refer to the DraftKings Preview on DraftKings Playbook. Here are the bets we should be considering this week.
All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
It bears repeating how well Kuchar sets up for Pebble Beach this week. Over the previous 24 rounds, Kuchar ranks third in proximity from 100 to 125 yards, second in par 5 scoring and first in SG: putting on all surfaces. He’s one of the best in Tee-to-Green on short Par 72 courses under 7,200 yards and loves poa annua greens, ranking fourth over his last 50 rounds.
Backing Reavie this week will take a little faith in his tournament success over current form. Chez racked up four straight top-40 finishes, including a runner-up in 2018 and a 16th most recently in 2021. He’s also gained 6.2 strokes on the greens at Pebble Beach and a total of 29.9 here since 2018. A third-place at the 2019 U.S. Open with two rounds of 68 in Rounds 1 and 3 should be enough to give Reavie consideration at this number. Although he’s gained with his irons in all but two tournaments over his last 15 measured events, he’s struggling in most of the other major strokes gained categories, so there’s some risk involved if the irons are firing.
NeSmith missed the American Express cut by two shots but averaged just under 80% greens hit in regulation. A top-20 last season and an 11th the season prior at Pebble are positive signs he can navigate the course and format well. NeSmith is also top-10 in SG: Tee-to-Green on par 72s less than 7,200 yards and plays well in California, finishing 17th at the 2020 American Express on debut and 34th last week at the Farmers. A 51st at the recent Fortinet Championship came from a lousy putting week (-2.9), but he led the field in SG: Approach-the-Green, gaining 6.2 shots on the field. His putting is improving, gaining in two of his previous four events, with last week being his fourth-most (3.4) since he’s been on the PGA TOUR.
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