We have a seven-game NBA slate today. On DraftKings Sportsbook, there are two games with a total of at least 230 — SA/ATL (232.5) and MIN/CHI (240.5). The Jazz are the biggest favorites at 13.5 points over the Magic while the 76ers are 13-point favorites over the Thunder.
Things are going to change throughout the day, so make sure to keep abreast of the news by following @dklive on Twitter.
Let’s break down some of the top studs and values at each position to help you build your DraftKings NBA lineups.
Dejounte Murray, San Antonio Spurs @ Atlanta Hawks ($10,300) – There are plenty of options up top at point guard today and LaMelo Ball ($9,000) is very enticing considering the price and matchup. That said, I like Murray slightly better because of the higher floor and possible lower ownership. Ball is coming off a 60.25-DKFP performance and has exceeded 60 in two of the last five games. In two of the other games, though, he went under 30. Murray is coming off a 36-DKFP game but that was against one of the top defenses in the league (CLE). Prior to that, he went for at least 45 DKFP in eight straight with three of those over 60. The Hawks are 27th in defensive efficiency and this game has a total of 232.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook, so there should be plenty of chances for fantasy goodies. Murray is a threat to triple-double on any given night and there is the possibility that he garners more usage with Derrick White no longer on the team.
Other Options – Trae Young ($9,900), LaMelo Ball ($9,000), Cade Cunningham ($8,000—if he plays), Josh Giddey ($7,500)
Bones Hyland, Denver Nuggets @ Boston Celtics ($3,800) – Monte Morris is out due to a concussion so Hyland will likely get the start. The matchup isn’t great as Boston is 2nd in defensive efficiency and neutralizes the FPPM to point guards by 1.6%. There is the possibility that Facundo Campazzo ($3,000) gets the start, but Hyland should still get plenty of run and has received over 30 minutes two times this season. He’s averaging 0.95 FP/min and has scored over 30 DKFP six times with a high of 50.
Other Options – Jordan McLaughlin ($3,300—if Russell and Beverley are out)
Zach LaVine, Chicago Bulls vs. Minnesota Timberwolves ($9,200) – This game has a whopping total of 240.5 so it’s going to be popular. If the projected ownership gets too high, then I have no problems pivoting since there are other options at the top of the position. That said, the game environment and matchup are very juicy and hard to ignore. Minnesota is 2nd in offensive pace while Chicago is 11th so it should be an up-and-down affair. The spread is only three points so it should be competitive as well. Since returning to action, LaVine has played 37 and 41 minutes, garnering a usage rate of 30.3% and 26.8% while producing 52.5 and 44.75 DKFP. Minnesota boosts the FPPM to shooting guards by 10.54%.
Other Options – Donovan Mitchell ($8,800), Jaylen Brown ($8,700), Cade Cunningham ($8,000—if he plays), Josh Giddey ($7,500)
Trent Forrest, Utah Jazz vs. Orlando Magic ($3,700) – Forrest was primarily benefitting when both Clarkson and Mitchell were out, but he’s still been getting around 20 minutes of run with both of them in the lineup. He only averages 0.62 FP/Min on the season, and although that number has spiked up to 0.84 this month, he’s not a per-minute stud. That said, there is some upside today as he could get a few extra minutes of playing time since the Jazz are favored by 13.5 points over the Magic. Forrest has produced 23.75 and 15.25 DKFP over the last two games in 23 and 21 minutes.
Other Options – Bones Hyland ($3,800), Kevin Huerter ($4,200)
Kelly Oubre, Charlotte Hornets @ Detroit Pistons ($5,900) – I usually write up higher-priced players because you usually get what you pay for. Today, I feel like the players at the top of the position could disappoint a bit while Oubre could match or exceed their output. Now, Oubre is a volatile player and things could go horribly wrong, so the floor is low. If you don’t have the stomach for it, I get it and I’d suggest going with a safer option. If you like to live dangerously, Oubre does have 50-DKFP upside. He’s going to be starting with Gordon Hayward out and should get around 35 minutes of run. On the season, he averages 0.97 FP/min. The Pistons are 13th in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency. Against small forwards, they boost the FPPM by 8.99%. Since he’s priced attractively, the ownership could be high. If that number gets too large, pivoting is the right thing to do since the range of outcomes is wide with Oubre.
Other Options – Jaylen Brown ($8,700), Miles Bridges ($8,100), Saddiq Bey ($6,500)
Aleksej Pokusevski, Oklahoma City Thunder @ Philadelphia 76ers ($3,500) – The only thing I feel confident of when it comes to Pokusevski is that he probably won’t start. After that, <insert shrug emoji>. He’s played in two of the last three games and put up 28.25 and 38 DKFP. In the other game, he was sent down the G-League. He’s looked lost at times this season, so is the most recent two-game stretch the beginning of a New World Order or was it an aberration? What gives me some optimism for Friday is that the Thunder are 13-point underdogs so he could get elevated playing time as a result. In addition, the Thunder are thin in the frontcourt due to injuries. The price is cheap, there is a path to playing time and he does have 30-DKFP upside.
Other Options – Trent Forrest ($3,700), Jaden McDaniels ($3,800)
DeMar DeRozan, Chicago Bulls vs. Minnesota Timberwolves ($9,700) – DeRozan has been DeMazing this season, as he’s exceeded point expectations 90% of the time. Over the last 12 games, he’s gone for at least 45 DKFP in every game with five over 50 and a high of 67.25. This game has the highest total on the slate and both teams play fast, so giddy up. Over the last four games, DeRozan has garnered a usage rate over 40% in three of those contests. In the other game, it was 35.3%.
Other Options – Miles Bridges ($8,100), Tobias Harris ($8,300), Kevin Love ($6,900), Jerami Grant ($6,000), Keldon Johnson ($6,000), Saddiq Bey ($6,500)
Devin Vassell, San Antonio Spurs @ Atlanta Hawks ($4,000) – Vassell is averaging 0.89 FP/min on the season. With Derrick White gone, he will presumably enter the starting rotation at shooting guard with Doug McDermott ($4,100) and Keldon Johnson ($6,000) manning the forward spots. The Hawks boost the FPPM to shooting guards by a league-leading 13.42%.
Other Options – Aleksej Pokusevski ($3,500), Jaden McDaniels ($3,800)
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ($11,900) – I was going to write up Nikola Jokic ($12,400) because he’s Nikola Jokic, one of the best fantasy centers in the league with the highest floor/ceiling combo. But like a good worker bee, I dug into things a little more and there are merits for fading Jokic today and going with Embiid. First, Jokic looks like he’s going to be massively rostered while Embiid could come in at half the ownership. Jokic has a higher projection and ceiling but Embiid isn’t too far behind. Over his last 10 games, he’s gone for 60 DKFP eight times with two over 70. Jokic has gone for 60 DKFP in six of the last 10 with one over 70. He does have a high of 93 on the season, though. Embiid has blowout concerns because the Thunder stink and they are 13-point underdogs. Jokic has to face a Boston team that has been lights out on defense and has neutralized the FPPM to opposing centers by a league-best 21.79%.
Other Options – Nikola Vucevic ($9,500), Jarrett Allen ($7,900), Kevin Love ($6,900)
Zach Collins, San Antonio Spurs @ Atlanta Hawks ($3,500) – After missing the entire season, Collins returned last Friday and played in two games, receiving 14 and 18 minutes of run. There’s going to be a limit on his playing time but he could get around 20 in this one. He’s gone for 26.75 and 19.25 DKFP and should pay off his salary expectations.
Other Options – Goga Bitadze ($4,700), Kelly Olynyk ($4,000)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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