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NBA Betting, Fantasy Advice: DraftKings Basketball DFS Picks, Predictions, Odds for February 11

Matt LaMarca breaks down Friday’s NBA slate with game analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

The NBA Cheat Sheet provides an in-depth look at Friday’s slate, featuring DraftKings DFS and Sportsbook picks.

Follow along on Twitter (@dklive) for updates.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $300K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st]


Top Scoring Game Environments on DraftKings Sportsbook

Timberwolves at Bulls – 240.5
Spurs at Hawks – 232.5
Hornets at Pistons – 227.0

Friday’s matchup between the Timberwolves and Bulls stands out as one of the best matchups in recent memory. It has been very rare to see a total eclipse 240 points this season, but that is the case here. Both of these teams boast top 10 offenses, and the Timberwolves have played at the third-fastest pace this season. Both squads have also struggled on the defensive end of late, with both ranking in the bottom 10 in terms of defensive efficiency over the past 10 games. Add it all up, and you’ve got a formula for a ton of points.

The Spurs have historically been a slow-paced, defensive-minded team, but that is not the case this year. They rank fifth in pace and just 18th in defensive efficiency, making them an excellent matchup for fantasy purposes. The Hawks rank second in the league in offensive efficiency, so they can do some damage in this spot.

Finally, the Hornets have routinely played in high-total games all season. They’ve played at the fastest pace in the league, and they rank 24th in defensive efficiency. The Pistons are not nearly as effective as Charlotte on the offensive end, but they rank 26th on defense. Overall, expect a game with plenty of possessions between two squads that struggle to get stops.


Scheduling Notes

3rd game in 4th night

Pistons, Timberwolves

First leg of back-to-back

Hornets, Bulls, Cavaliers, Nuggets, Thunder, Magic, 76ers, Spurs

Second leg of back-to-back

Pistons


Key Injuries to Monitor

Timberwolves SG/SF Anthony Edwards ($7,800) and PG/SG D’Angelo Russell ($7,400) at Bulls

In addition to the Timberwolves playing in the best environment of the day for fantasy purposes, they also have a jam-packed injury report. Edwards, Russell, Patrick Beverley ($5,100; ankle), Naz Reid ($3,200; knee), Josh Okogie ($3,000; quadriceps) and Taurean Prince ($4,300; ankle) are all listed as questionable. However, each of those players was also questionable in the Timberwolves’ last game, and Beverley was the only player who ended up sitting.

Edwards and Russell are obviously the biggest names to monitor here. If both players are ruled out, Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,800) figures to be the biggest beneficiary. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high 5.8 percentage points with both players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.44 DKFP per minute. Malik Beasley ($3,800) would also likely see more playing time in that situation, and his usage rate has seen a 5.3 percentage point bump with both players off the floor.

Pacers PG Malcolm Brogdon ($7,200) vs. Cavaliers

The Pacers have successfully re-tooled their lineup on the fly. They shipped Caris LeVert to the Cavaliers and Domantas Sabonis to the Kings, so they are building around a core of Brogdon, Tyrese Haliburton ($8,400) and Myles Turner moving forward.

However, Turner remains out of the lineup with an injury, while Brogdon is currently questionable. Brogdon has been on the Pacers’ injury report for most of the year, and he’s missed each of their past 11 games.

If he’s forced to miss another contest, Haliburton could be transplanted into a monster role in his first game with his new team. He’s averaged 1.10 DKFP per minute over the past month, and he averaged 40.94 DKFP in 12 games without De’Aaron Fox during his tenure with the Kings. That seems like a reasonable expectation for Haliburton if Brogdon is out of the lineup, even in a tough matchup vs. the Cavaliers.


Favorite Pick Against the Spread

Pistons (+7) vs. Hornets

The Pistons are not a good basketball team, but I’m not sure they deserve to be seven-point home underdogs vs. the Hornets. The Hornets have lost six straight games, and five of those games have come at home. Now they have to head on the road, and they’ll be without some of their depth options due to injuries.

The Pistons also decided to hang on to Jerami Grant ($6,000) before the trade deadline, which keeps them at essentially full strength. Cade Cunningham ($8,000; hip) is currently questionable, but I like their chances to cover if he’s able to suit up.


Favorite Player Prop

Al Horford Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-105)

The Celtics are in the midst of a good stretch, winning each of their past six games, and Horford has been a part of their success. He’s racked up at least 21 points + rebounds + assists in three of his past five games, including each of his past two. That includes his last contest, despite the fact that he played just 22.2 minutes in a blowout win. He’s expected to see closer to 30 minutes on Friday, and Horford is capable of contributing in every category across the board. I like his chances of hitting the over on this number.


Favorite Stud

Hornets PG LaMelo Ball ($9,000) at Pistons

The Hornets have been playing extremely shorthanded of late, and they’re going to be thin again on Friday. Gordon Hayward is out indefinitely, while Cody Martin and Jalen McDaniels have been ruled out vs. the Pistons. The team will get a bit of help in this matchup — Montrezl Harrell is available to make his team debut — but Ball should be looking at another monster workload. He’s racked up at least 37.7 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s coming off 60.25 DKFP in his last outing. He’s averaged 1.37 DKFP per minute this season, and he can pile up fantasy points with that much playing time vs. the Pistons.


Favorite Value Play

Spurs SF/PF Devin Vassell ($4,000) at Hawks

The Spurs surprisingly traded away Derrick White before the deadline, creating a significant void in their rotation. Vassell is someone who should benefit. He’s expected to see around 27 minutes Friday vs. the Hawks, and he’s averaged 0.92 DKFP per minute over the past month. That makes him simply too cheap at $4K.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $300K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st]


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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