The Wild are taking on a Red Wings team today who has won three of their last four games. It’s important to note though that two of those wins came against the Flyers, who have been playing out the string for some time now. Detroit has allowed 4.0 goals over their last seven games and has just a 7-12-3 record on the road with a -30 goal differential in those 22 road games. Minnesota is 15-3-1 at home this season with a +29 goal differential. The fact we’re getting plus-money to take the Wild to cover the Puck-line makes this a great target.
Neither the Jets nor the Blackhawks should be construed as consistent teams. The Blackhawks are coming off a terrible 5-1 loss to St. Louis but they’re also just a couple of games removed from a 4-1 win over Edmonton where Marc-Andre Fleury stopped 40 shots for the win. The Jets have been inconsistent in all areas this season, including in net where Connor Hellebuyck has just a .903 save percentage in his last 10 games. At +140, the Blackhawks are worth taking on against a team as up and down as they are.
San Jose Sharks vs. Edmonton Oilers
Tomas Hertl ($5,100) — Timo Meier ($6,500) — Alexander Barabanov ($2,900)
For a slate that only has four games, we have a ton of big names on it that we’ll almost certainly want to pay up for. One line that looks supremely undervalued today—and will help us fit in studs like Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid—is the top unit of the San Jose Sharks.
San Jose takes on the Oilers today, who are now trending with the ninth-worst penalty-kill in the league and have allowed the eighth-most shots on net per game in the entire league. The top-trio for the Sharks are also very well correlated for fantasy purposes as all three have been taking shifts together at regular strength and on the power-play. This is also the first time we’re seeing Timo Meier available at under $7,000 in over 10 games, and the winger has averaged over a point-per-game this season and just under 4.0 shots on net per game in his last 10 starts.
Meier and Tomas Hertl make for a great upper-tier value pairing as Hertl is also available at his cheapest salary in over 10 starts. Hertl assisted on four of Meier’s five goals against L.A. last month and the two can become even more affordable if we squeeze in winger Alex Barabanov, who is under $3,000 (the first time in over 10 games) and averaging over 0.5 points per game this season. There’s good value with the Sharks’ first-line today.
Superstar to Target
Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken ($9,100)
There will be lots of discussion around the coaching narrative and return to San Jose of Evander Kane ($5,300), but don’t let that blind you to the fact that Auston Matthews is the clear top target on this slate. He’s averaging over 5.0 shots on net and comes in just one goal behind the leaders in the Rocket Richard chase. Matthews’ 22.3 DKFP average over his last 10 starts is also miles better than either of the Oilers’ studs on this slate and yet he can be had for just $1,100 more than Leon Draisaitl ($8,000), the cheaper of the two Oilers’ options.
Value on Offense
Alex Debrincat, Chicago Blackhawks at Winnipeg Jets ($5,100)
The Blackhawks’ offense has admittedly been hit or miss of late, but the prices we’re getting on some of their top-line players are almost criminal today. Alex DeBrincat leads that category as he comes in at just over $5,000, despite having landed 27 goals already in just 48 games. The Jets make for a great opponent for a goal-scorer like DeBrincat as they allow the 11th-most shots per game and have the fifth-worst penalty-kill. Target the cheap Blackhawks forwards today for value in a matchup where their offense could easily break out.
Matt Boldy, Minnesota Wild vs. Detroit Red Wings ($4,100)
The Wild have moved the 20-year-old Boldy into a top-six role of late and it’s produced some nice fantasy dividends. Boldy has now grabbed nine points in his last 10 games and is averaging 10.9 DKFP over that same span. Boldy’s been taking regular shifts on the Wild PP1, which gives him heightened upside against a team like the Red Wings, who doesn’t mind taking penalties and still ranks out with just a mediocre penalty-kill.
Marc-Andre Fleury, Chicago Blackhawks at Winnipeg Jets ($7,600)
It’s a small four-game slate today and the top goalie in the odds and salary (Jack Campbell) hasn’t looked all that great of late. It’s a good night to take on a bit of risk in net and go with a pure upside play in Fleury. Fleury has been up and down most of the season but when he’s been locked in, his upside in fantasy has been near unmatched. The former Penguin only has three wins in his last 10 starts but he’s also averaging 12.2 DKFP over that span thanks to hitting the DraftKings save bonus three times.
The Hawks allow over 32 shots per game and it’s also worth noting for today that Fleury has posted much better road splits this season. Fleury has a .916 save percentage over 18 road starts and is also averaging 15.1 DKFP on the road this season (vs 11.7 DKFP at home). He’s a good pay-down target for any format on this thin slate for goalies.
Value on Defense
Calvin de Haan, Chicago Blackhawks at Winnipeg Jets ($3,300)
We’ll go the boring route on defense today and target the insanely undervalued Calvin de Haan. The Blackhawks’ defenseman doesn’t bring us much offensive upside (if any) as he’s only managed to land four points through 44 games. It’s a truly remarkable stat that a defenseman who averages over 20 minutes a game can’t at least scratch out a .25 point-per-game average but de Haan’s game isn’t scoring, it’s blocking shots.
He’s the league leader in that area and has averaged an insane 4.6 blocked shots over his last 10 games. He has become so consistent in that area that he’s hit the DraftKings blocked shot bonus in each of his last 12 games and has also chipped in 1.8 shots on net per game over his last 10 starts as well—for an 11.7 DKFP average. He’s available at under $3,400 today for the first time in over 10 games and makes for a great value target on what sets up as a stars and scrubs style of slate.
Power Play Defensemen
Morgan Rielly, Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken ($5,400)
The Maple Leafs head onto this slate with the largest implied team total and will be facing a Kraken team who rates out with the eighth-worst penalty-kill in the league. The Kraken simply have not worked out as planned for year one and they’re a very solid target for a player like Rielly, who comes into this game with 11 points (four on the power-play) over his last 10 starts.
The price on Rielly is actually $500 cheaper than it was in his last outing—which really makes no sense given his recent production—and that makes it far easier to slide him into a Leafs PP1 stack with Matthews or Mitch Marner ($7,000), who have been near unstoppable of late. We have some very solid special teams units to target on this slate but the value/upside we’re getting on the Leafs’ top-unit takes the cake. Use Rielly today as your defensive anchor.
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