The Predators take on a Capitals team who continues to struggle. Washington has lost three of its last four games and two of those losses have come to such luminaries as the Columbus Blue Jackets and Ottawa Senators. The Predators have lost two straight themselves but are 5-2 over their last seven and have allowed the eighth-fewest scoring chances this season. The advantage in net today is heavy in Nashville’s favor with Juuse Saros having a .931 save percentage in 21 home starts this season. Take the Predators straight up today.
The Flames’ offense is once again crushing on a nightly basis. Calgary has scored four or more goals in five straight games and has averaged 4.8 goals over that span. The Flames just added former Canadien Tyler Toffoli to boost their second-line and take on one of the worst defensive teams in hockey today in the Blue Jackets. Columbus has allowed the fourth-most quality scoring chances and has the 10th-worst penalty-kill. The odds on over 3.5 goals look small but the matchup and boost they’re getting from a recent trade mean the roll should continue for one more night.
Calgary Flames vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Elias Lindholm ($6,500) — Johnny Gaudreau ($7,500) — Matthew Tkachuk ($6,000)
I mentioned the spot for the Flames above and while the talk in NHL land may be about the big trade they made to bolster their depth, the DFS play tonight remains stacking their first line. Calgary’s top unit remains the most productive line in hockey with 42 goals on the season, and while there are some other top units on the slate in Dallas and Nashville, the value and matchup with Calgary is unmatched today.
Matthew Tkachuk looks the most underpriced of the group as he’s up to well over a point per game on the season and has averaged 13.8 DraftKings points over his last 10 games. Tkachuk still takes a 1a role to Johnny Gaudreau though, who has been on a tear for over a month now. Gaudreau is also averaging just under 3.6 shots on net per game over his last 10 starts and the line as a whole has combined for 12 points in the last three games.
This isn’t a contrarian pick at all as many people will be drawn to the matchup with Columbus today, but Calgary’s top players correlate better than almost anyone in DFS. Missing out on an outburst by them today will likely leave you way behind.
Superstar to Target
Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning at New Jersey Devils ($8,500)
Kucherov put up a big fat goose egg in his last game, landing zero fantasy points on DraftKings in 22 minutes played. It’s actually an impressive feat but not one that I’d look for Kucherov to perform again anytime soon. He’s averaging 4.3 shots per game and 16.8 DraftKings points per game over his last 10 starts, even with that 0.0 performance thrown in.
The matchup today couldn’t be better for a bounce-back either as the Devils come in ranked fourth last in goals against average and have allowed the eighth-most quality scoring chances in the league. Kucherov has been great at posting monster games after bad performances this season, and with such a soft performance, paying up for the elite winger looks like a great move today.
Value on Offense
Brayden Schenn, St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators ($3,900)
Brayden Schenn has been on a nice tear of late. The winger has landed 13 points in his last 10 games and been a stout power-play performer as well, with four of those points coming with the man advantage. Schenn’s price today almost makes him a free space considering the usage and production we’ve seen from him of late, and the matchup with Ottawa is solid as well. Ottawa allows the sixth-most shots and ranks 10th last in goals against per game. Schenn’s an easy value target and a good way to get exposure to an elite St. Louis offense.
Valeri Nichushkin, Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars ($4,300)
I’d expect some more fireworks from the Colorado offense today as they’re at home and against a Stars team that they put up four goals against in their last outing. Nichushkin continues to surprise for fantasy purposes as he’s locked into a top-six role alongside an elite center in Nazem Kadri ($8,000) and has averaged 3.5 shots on goal and 11.7 DraftKings points over his last 10 games as well. Nichuskin and Kadri could be a great contrarian stack today but even just using the Russian winger on his own is fine as he’s one of the better cheap values under $5K at forward.
Ville Husso, St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators ($8,100)
The Blues are listed on this slate as -205 road favorites, which only has them sitting as the fifth biggest favorite on this slate. With all those big goalies out there to pay up for it is possible that Husso slips through the cracks and comes in at lower ownership. That would be a great scenario for your big field lineups as Husso has been fantastic of late for the Blues, posting a .950 save percentage over his last 10 starts—a stretch that includes a 7-1 record.
A hot goalie is one thing, but he’s also got a great matchup against Ottawa, who attempts over 30 shots per game but has also averaged under 2.8 goals per game for the season. Husso is not as expensive as the other big favorites and brings better form than pretty much any goalie on the slate. He’s an elite target for Tuesday’s full slate and a good way to stack more Blues today.
Value on Defense
Justin Faulk, St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators ($4,100)
There are lots of top-end matchups to discuss on this slate but the Blues going up against the Senators is one we should be hyper-focused on for value purposes. We’ve already mentioned Brayden Schenn above as a great cheap option you can use to get exposure to the Blues’ top-five power-play unit and we can even double-down on our exposure by adding in Justin Faulk as well, a player who saw his power-play exposure rise in the Blues’ last game.
Faulk plays in a top-five role, is averaging over 0.5 points per game on the season and has a plus matchup against a team that gives up plenty of shots on net. The veteran has proven he’s still got plenty of upside left in the tank lately too as he’s landed four games with 10.0 or more DKFP over his last six starts. Another decent outing today wouldn’t be shocking against a weak opponent.
Power Play Defensemen
Noah Dobson, New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres ($5,500)
The Islanders have a generous match up against the Buffalo Sabres today which should have us high on a lot of their special teams players. Despite his team struggling through most of the season, Noah Dobson has quietly turned into one of the best values on defense over the past couple of months. He comes into this game averaging a stout 5.7 blocked shots + shots on goal per game over his last 10 starts and remains the lead power-play quarterback for the Islanders’ PP1.
The upside with the Isles power-play isn’t great (they’re 12th last in power-play efficiency) but the matchup today and Dobson’s own production in blocked shots and shots on goal should have us very high on him at this price. Buffalo ranks just 23rd in penalty-kill efficiency and Dobson has found seven of his 19 points this season with the man advantage. He’s a great upper-tier value on defense to build around.
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