The Florida Swing starts with one of the most challenging courses on the PGA TOUR. PGA National ranked sixth last season and fourth in scoring relative to par a couple of seasons ago. The easiest it’s played was 17th in 2014. It has routinely ranked inside the top 10 in scoring difficulty, one of the only non-Majors to rank this high over the last decade consistently. There are 15 holes that water comes into play, and since 2007 (minimum of 10 seasons), PGA National has recorded two of the top 5 toughest 3-hole stretches in scoring on holes five through seven and 15 through 17.
Choosing outrights at The Honda Classic has been eventful. Since 2012, the average winning odds have been +147000. Padraig Harrington was the longest at +40000 2015, and Rory McIlroy was the shortest in 2012 at +900. A weak field with an extremely challenging course could mean we might get another first-time winner or deep sleeper winning this week.
For a full course preview, key statistics breakdown and additional players to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook, refer to the DraftKings Preview on DraftKings Playbook. Here are the bets we should be considering this week.
All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
First-time winners seem to be the trend over the last few weeks, and why not add another at PGA National. It’s a tall order, but Bezuidenhout has the game to play well here, ranking sixth in SG: Approach-the-Green and first in SG: Putting on Bermuda greens over the previous 24 rounds. I’m a little worried this week will be his first start here, but two top-15s and a top-20 already this season could be enough to back the young South African in Florida this week.
It looks like we’re going with a trio (including Louis Oosthuizen from the Preview article) of South-Africans this week, with Frittelli as a solid sleeper who finished 5th at The Open Championship last season, top-5 at the 2020 Masters and 11th here in 2018. Frittelli didn’t play well over the West Coast swing but still placed 26th at the difficult Riviera CC, gaining 4.2 strokes Tee-to-Green.
Back-to-back MCs from Palmer drift his odds longer than they should be at a course he’s finished 17th and fourth in his previous two starts at PGA National. In his last six measured events, Palmer has gained strokes T2G in nine-straight Honda Classics and hasn’t lost strokes Off-the-Tee. A MC in 2018 is his only missed weekend since 2012 and he finished runner up here in 2014, losing in a four-golfer playoff. Palmer’s short game has been inconsistent, but he gets back on bermudagrass, a surface he much prefers over poa annua. He finds the water quite a bit here, but a top-20 is well within reason.
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