All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
The NBA is back out of the All-Star break and the home stretch is upon us. I do tend to tread a bit lightly out of the break, but the Friday board still offers up some strong spots.
Per usual, I’ll put everything official up on Twitter that I bet on personally. This is a betting guide for this NBA card, and anything I’ve actually bet will include a unit amount.
MIA 1Q -2 (-105) — 1.25-units
MIA -5.5 (-110) — 1.25-units
The Knicks really limped into the break, losing seven of their last eight and going 1-7 ATS in that span. Kemba Walker has been put on the shelf for the remainder of the season, and some other rotation players are questionable heading into this one. It’s an important stretch for the Knicks, who should try and get more young talent involved and see if it helps them gain any momentum. The issues is, I don’t have faith they’ll actually go in that direction. Tom Thibodeau doesn’t like to defer to developing youth, he’ll likely play his veterans big minutes and continue to try and make a push for the play-in round. If that’s the route New York goes, I see it continuing to spiral.
Meanwhile, the Heat have won six of their last seven, including five straight on the road. Miami is also on a nice 8-1 SU/7-2 ATS run in this specific matchup against the Knicks. Lots of chatter about all the teams in the Eastern Conference that made moves at the deadline, but the Heat remain my favorite to reach the NBA Finals. I expect a very solid finish to the regular season. Miami is getting healthy now and it should show out of the break.
As for the first quarter, the Knicks have gotten off to the worst home starts in the NBA — 10-20 1Q ATS at Madison Square Garden. The Heat are a solid 18-14-1 1Q ATS on the road, and went 6-3-1 1Q ATS in their last 10 overall prior to the break.
LAC ML (+100) — Waiting for LeBron James status/better number
Anthony Davis is out long-term for the Lakers and LeBron is listed as questionable for this one. However, I’m fully expecting him to play — James went through shoot around on Friday, not to mention it’d be an awful look to play 36 minutes in the All-Star game and not be ready the first game back.
If LeBron is ruled out, I’ll rush to back the Clippers in this one before the number moves. However, the more likely scenario is that he plays, and we can wait and get a little bit better of a number on the Clippers. The Clips were playing terrific defense prior to the break, and seemed to be hitting their stride — 4-1 ATS run their last five. LAC has also been fantastic in this matchup, winning the last five battles for LA. Avery Bradley, who is part of the Lakers’ most efficient lineup will remain out, further hampering the Lakers here. The struggles are real for the Lakers. The Clippers are simply the better team.
One way or another, keep an eye out for this play once the LeBron news becomes official.
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