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NBA Betting, Fantasy Advice: DraftKings Basketball DFS Picks, Predictions, Odds for February 28

Nick Friar breaks down Monday’s NBA slate with game analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

The NBA Cheat Sheet provides an in-depth look at Monday’s seven-game main slate, featuring DFS and Sportsbook picks.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.

Top scoring game environments on DraftKings Sportsbook

Hornets-Bucks: 240.5 points
Spurs-Grizzlies: 237 points
Pacers-Magic: 231.5 points

The Magic are bottom 10 in defensive rating and top 10 in pace. While they’re not the team playing on the second leg of a back-to-back in this meeting, the Pacers just put up 128 on the Celtics. Oshae Brissett ($5,900) had a big game vs. Boston, so he might be one of the more popular low mid-range plays. Still, he’s provided a ton of value since the deadline and is going up against a team that doesn’t do well against forwards or centers.

Giannis Antetokounmpos ($12,000) is in a great spot with the Hornets being on the second leg of a back-to-back and an opponent opposing bigs thrive against. He’s one of the better stud plays on Monday, but not my No. 1. Absolutely worth getting some exposure to him, but he doesn’t give you a ton of wiggle room in your lineup.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $400K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st]

Scheduling Notes

3rd game in 4th night

Hornets, Pacers, Raptors, Heat, Spurs

2nd night of a back-to-back

Hornets, Pacers

1st night of a back-to-back

Raptors, Nets, Timberwolves

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Key Injury to Monitor

Raptors PG/SG Fred VanVleet ($8,000) vs. Nets
Pacers PG Malcolm Brogdon ($7,100) at Magic

Brogdon isn’t on the early injury report since Indiana played on Monday, but his Achilles issue always makes him a player to keep tabs on when the Pacers are on the second leg of a back-to-back. If he’s a no-go, Tyrese Haliburton ($8,600) and Buddy Hield ($7,000) become much more appealing options. Brissett is a good play regardless of Brogdon’s status.

Gary Trent Jr. ($6,200) will be a popular play if VanVleet is a no-go. He produces 1.12 DKFP per minute and a 28.7% usage rate when VanVleet and OG Anunoby (out) are off the floor this season. Chris Boucher ($4,300) and Thad Young ($3,400) both did well with VanVleet out on Feb. 16, too. If things go sideways for the Nets, those two Raptors could have a chance to get a little extra on Monday. Precious Achiuwa ($3,6000 is also a justifiable play of VanVleet doesn’t go, but he should be a very popular play following his last performance.

Favorite Pick Against the Spread

Raptors -4 vs. Nets

The Nets are coming off a surprising upset of the Bucks. However, they had Kyrie Irving in that game. Since this contest is being played at Barclays Center, the Brooklyn point guard is a no-go for Monday.

While the Raptors could be without both VanVleet (questionable) and OG Anunoby (out), they have more than enough firepower to comfortably handle a Nets team that’s without Irving, Kevin Durant and Ben Simmons. And while the Nets have covered in four of their last six, two of those games featured Irving and the other two were played against the Kings and Knicks — who, like the Nets, are among the 10 worst teams ATS this season.

Toronto, on the other hand, is among the five best teams ATS in 2021-22. Now, the Raptors have failed to cover in their last two games, but that’s a good trend for those looking to back them on Monday. Toronto hasn’t failed to cover in three consecutive games since the end of November.

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Favorite Player Prop

Heat C Bam Adebayo: over 1.5 blocks vs. Bulls

I do like the over on Adebayo’s points prop (19.5, -115), but getting this prop is too good at +165. In the 18 games before his injury, he only blocked multiple shots in a game once. In the 18 games since returning from injury, Adebayo has logged seven multi-block games — four of which have come in his last four games. Yes, at some point this run will end, but that end shouldn’t come on Monday.

Opponents average 5.1 blocked shots per game vs. the Bulls (tied for seventh-most in the NBA). Chicago is also tied for the eighth-most blocks surrendered to the center position per 48 minutes (2.2). Adebayo isn’t playing 48 minutes a game, but he’s logged 34-plus in Miami’s last six.

Favorite Value Play

Thunder C Isaiah Roby ($4,600) vs. Kings

Roby went into the NBA All-Star break on a high, but then he didn’t do much in OKC’s first game after the pause in the action. But, he came off the bench in that showing.

On Friday, however, Roby was back in the starting lineup and provided close to seven-times value on his Monday price tag. Opposing bigs have gotten their fill vs. the Kings throughout the season, with Sacramento giving up the second-most DKFP to centers in 2021-22. Furthermore, the Kings are a pace-up opponent for the Thunder, and Sacramento has the second-worst defensive rating in the NBA.

Favorite Stud

Heat C Bam Adebayo ($8,800) vs. Bulls

Yep, it’s all about the big men Monday.

It came down to Antetokounmpo and Adebayo for this one. The former’s salary is just a smidge too high to get the top seat, but he’s still someone to utilize if you’re running multiple lineups on Monday.

Adebayo has come out of the break hot, going over 50 DKFP in Miami’s last two games. And he’s in a good spot to do even more damage on Monday with Kyle Lowry out. With Lowry off the floor this season, Adebayo has a 24.1% usage rate and averages 1.2 DKFP per minute.

Also, the Bulls rank among the 10 worst teams in defensive rating this season. They’re just outside the top 10 in pace, as well. The Heat may be more likely to dictate the tempo since they’re so far in the other direction at 28th, but at least we know Chicago will try to move the pace in the other direction rather than feed into slowing the game down.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $400K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st]

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is dk-nfriar) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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