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NBA Betting, Fantasy Advice: DraftKings Basketball DFS Picks, Predictions, Odds for February 4

Matt LaMarca breaks down Friday’s NBA slate with game analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

The NBA Cheat Sheet provides an in-depth look at Friday’s slate, featuring DraftKings DFS and Sportsbook picks.

Follow along on Twitter (@dklive) for updates.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $400K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st]

Top Scoring Game Environments on DraftKings Sportsbook

Rockets @ Spurs – 236.0
Bulls @ Pacers – 231.0
Nets @ Jazz – 230.0

Whenever the Rockets are available on a particular slate, you can expect their game to check in with one of the top totals of the day. Friday’s matchup with the Spurs is no exception. The total currently sits at 236.0, which is the top mark on the slate by a sizable margin. The Rockets have been a fantasy goldmine this season, ranking first in pace and dead-last in defensive efficiency. The Spurs have also played at the fifth-fastest pace this season, so there should be plenty of possessions in this matchup. Expect both sides to provide plenty of fantasy value.

The Bulls and the Pacers is another matchup with a total above 230 points. Both of these teams have struggled mightily on the defensive end recently. The Bulls rank just 21st in defensive efficiency over their past 10 games, while the Pacers are all the way down in 29th. The Pacers have also played at the fifth-fastest pace over that time frame, so this game has some shootout potential.

The Nets and Jazz round out this section, and this game features two of the best offensive teams in basketball. The Jazz have been the top offensive team in the league this season, and they’ve retained that mark despite some recent injuries. Overall, they’re averaging 115.3 points per 100 possessions, and no one else is better than 113.4. The Nets haven’t been quite as productive this season – they rank seventh in offensive efficiency – but there is no denying their talent on that end of the floor. Even without Kevin Durant, the combination of James Harden and Kyrie Irving is enough to strike fear into the hearts of opposing defenses.

Scheduling Notes

3rd game in 4th night

Nets, Bulls, Nuggets, Pistons, Spurs, Raptors

First leg of back-to-back

Hornets, Thunder, Blazers

Second leg of back-to-back

Hawks, Bulls, Pistons, Spurs, Raptors

Key Injuries to Monitor

Spurs PG Dejounte Murray ($10,500) vs. Rockets

Murray missed the Spurs last game, and he’s suited up in just one of their past three contests. His status vs. the Rockets is still to be determined, and it will be vital to monitor throughout the day. The Spurs lead the slate with an implied team total of 120.25 points, and Murray has averaged a stout 1.56 DKFP per minute over the past month. He can do some damage if he’s able to suit up, and the rest of the rotation would get a bump if he’s ultimately ruled out. Derrick White ($6,400) has increased his production to 1.19 DKFP per minute in six games without Murray this season, so he would be one of the biggest beneficiaries.

Pistons PG Cade Cunningham ($8,300) vs. Celtics

Editor’s Note: Pistons PG/SG Cade Cunningham (hip) has been ruled out for tonight’s game vs. the Celtics.

Cunningham was the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, and he’s had an up-and-down rookie season. He has one of the widest ranges of outcomes for any player in fantasy at the moment: He’s had two games of at least 59.5 DKFP and two games with 16.75 DKFP or fewer over his past four.

Cunningham missed the Pistons last contest, and Saddiq Bey ($6,200) exploded for 53.75 DKFP thanks to 21 points, 13 rebounds and eight assists. He deserves increased attention if Cunningham misses his second straight game. Cory Joseph ($4,300) would also become a viable value option after playing nearly 31 minutes in place of Cunningham on Thursday.

Pacers C Goga Bitadze ($5,800) vs. Bulls

Bitadze’s name doesn’t carry as much weight as Murray or Cunningham, but it’s just as important on Friday. The Pacers are down virtually every big man in their rotation at the moment – Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner and Isaiah Jackson are all out – so they would be extremely thin if he’s unable to suit up. Bitadze has missed the past three games, but he’s provided some value when healthy. He’s averaged 1.15 DKFP per minute over the past month, so he would be an appealing option if he gets 30+ minutes.

If Bitadze is unable to suit up, Terry Taylor ($4,200) would emerge as one of the best value plays of the day. He was extremely impressive in his last contest, erupting for 52.0 DKFP thanks to 24 points, 16 rebounds and three assists.

Favorite Pick Against the Spread

Raptors -2.5 vs. Hawks

The Raptors have been rolling recently. They’ve won six of their past eight games, including each of their past four, which has vaulted them into seventh place in the Eastern Conference standings.

They’ve dealt with injuries for most of the year, but this team is fully healthy at the moment. Head coach Nick Nurse has been playing his starting unit a ridiculous number of minutes, with guys like Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby all ranking among the league leaders in minutes per game. That may not be the best long-term strategy, but it has clearly helped the team recently.

As long as Nurse continues to lean on his best players, this team should continue to climb up the standings. The Raptors have been a favorite among the sharp bettors on Friday, racking up 94% of the spread dollars on just 54% of the bets. Expect this line to continue to rise before tipoff.

Favorite Player Prop

Dwight Powell Over 11.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

The Mavericks are currently playing without Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr., which has opened up a few additional minutes for the rest of the frontcourt. Powell is coming off just 12.6 minutes in his last contest, but he had logged at least 18.5 minutes in each of his three previous games. He finished with at least 12 points + rebounds + assists in each of those contests, so I think this is a nice buy-low opportunity. The Mavericks are going to need Powell’s size to combat Joel Embiid on the interior, so his playing time should return to normal on Friday’s slate. As long as that happens, he should be able to hit the over on this prop.

Favorite Stud

Nuggets C Nikola Jokic ($12,400) vs. Pelicans

Let’s not overthink this one. Jokic has been the best player in fantasy this season, and it frankly hasn’t been that close. He’s averaged 1.83 DKFP per minute, and he’s increased that figure to 1.87 over the past month. Ultimately, he’s racked up at least 60.25 DKFP in seven of his past nine games, and he’s had at least 54.0 DKFP in the two exceptions.

He missed the Nuggets last contest, but he’s probable to return to the lineup on Friday. He should be able to feast against the Pelicans, who rank 25th in defensive efficiency over their past 10 games. As long as Jokic is in the lineup, fire him up with confidence.

Favorite Value Play

Cavaliers PG Brandon Goodwin ($4,100) vs. Hornets

The Cavaliers own an excellent matchup Friday vs. the Hornets. They’ve played at the second-fastest pace this season, and they’re merely 26th in defensive efficiency. The Cavs will also be without All-Star point guard Darius Garland for the third straight game.

Goodwin has thrived sans Garland recently, racking up at least 25.75 DKFP in back-to-back games. He also logged 32.4 minutes in his last contest, so his playing time is trending in the right direction. Goodwin has averaged 1.00 DKFP per minute over the past month, so he can do some serious damage with 30+ minutes vs. the Hornets. He’s a steal at just $4,100.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $400K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st]

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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