The Hurricanes take on a red-hot Leafs team today but it’s a spot the proficient Hurricanes could easily take advantage of. Carolina is 15-5-1 on the road this season and has allowed under 28 shots in those 21 games. The Hurricanes and Leafs both enter this game on long winning streaks so we should be expecting a competitive game. As good as Toronto is playing, the line we’re getting to bet against them with a quality team like Carolina is well worth taking.
The Devils are still missing their best defenseman in Dougie Hamilton and could be without their best center in Jack Hughes too. The Devils have allowed well over 32 shots per game over their last five starts, which have all been losses. For his part, Tkachuk has averaged 4.6 shots on net over his last 10 games as well and has gone well over this mark in three of his last five starts. The big plus-money on the over is worth getting on.
Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs
Sebastian Aho ($7,200) — Andrei Svechnikov ($6,500) — Jesper Fast ($2,500)
The Leafs and Hurricanes meet today in a matchup between two of the top teams in the East. Both the Hurricanes and Maple Leafs rank in the top-five in goals per game and in the top-10 in power-play efficiency. Realistically, both of these teams’ top-lines are great fantasy targets, so rolling with the line that may be lower-owned today has some validity to it.
The Canes are +115 underdogs today and their forwards should carry far less ownership as a group in big GPPs. The duo of Aho and Svechnikov hasn’t been on the roll that Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews have been on of late but they’re no slouches either. Svechnikov is averaging over a point per game with 3.3 shots on net over his last 10 games and might be the best value on this small slate among the big names.
Using the explosive Canes duo with Jesper Fast—who is playing alongside them at even strength—also gives us the ability to play both sides of this game if we want and use a couple of Toronto studs on the other side. Despite the lines favoring Toronto, Carolina will also have an advantage in the nets today as former Cane Petr Mrazek is slated to start for Toronto and sports just a .902 save percentage in six starts this season. You’re likely going to have exposure to both sides of this game today on a two-game slate, but loading up on the Canes’ top line first is a good way to begin tournament lineups.
Superstar to Target
Mitchell Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Carolina Hurricanes ($6,400)
Fading Auston Matthews ($9,500) lately has not been very productive but fading his line-mate Mitchell Marner—who has been offered under $7,000 on the regular for a while now—has likely hurt even more. Marner has scored 24.0 or more DKFP in four straight games and is averaging just under 2.0 points per game over his last 10 starts.
This isn’t advocating for you to leave off Marner’s high-priced center, but if you are in a position where you have to choose, it’s Marner who is clearly the more valuable fantasy play at the moment. His salary gives us far more flexibility and his current form and role on the Leafs means his upside is equal to any on the slate. Get your Leafs exposure by rolling with Marner today.
Value on Offense
Tim Stuetzle, Ottawa Senators vs. New Jersey Devils ($4,900)
The Senators are banged up at numerous positions upfront and that’s meant they’ve been forced to play second-year center Tim Stuetzle in a more prominent role on the top line. While he’s likely not ready to carry this team yet offensively, the increased opportunity has led to better fantasy production. Stuetzle has averaged just under 3.0 shots on net per game and comes in having landed six points (with three goals) over his last 10 games.
He’s not a screaming value but the matchup with New Jersey is better than solid. The Devils have allowed 4.4 goals per game over their last six starts and have given up the 11th most quality scoring chances this season. As mentioned above, they’ve been allowing shots on net at a bigger rate and are still very thin on the backend without Dougie Hamilton chewing up minutes. Stuetzle is a great way to fill out lineups and looks underpriced for this matchup considering his new role on the top-line.
Matt Murray, Ottawa Senators vs. New Jersey Devils ($7,600)
The Senators set up as the biggest favorites on today’s slate at -135 on DraftKings Sportsbook, which feels like a weird statement in and of itself. The Senators are 3-3 in their last six games—and have been playing quality teams very close of late—and a big reason behind this recent surge is the play of Matt Murray. The veteran has stopped 96 of the last 100 shots he’s faced and has posted over 27.0 DKFP in two of his last three starts.
The Devils’ offense is hindered without Dougie Hamilton in the lineup to anchor their power-play and will also almost certainly be without Jack Hughes as well. Ottawa has allowed over 33 shots on net per game this season, so when their goalies are playing well, big fantasy games come often come from their net. Murray’s price is super inviting and he’s been paying off well in DFS, making him a great play today.
Value on Defense
Brady Skjei, Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs ($3,500)
We have two games and one of them features two very thin defensive cores in New Jersey and Ottawa. That makes the decision to target Brady Skjei today quite simple as he’s shown the ability to vastly outperform these smaller salaries on a consistent basis this season. The Carolina defenseman has now averaged over 21 minutes of ice time over his last 10 starts and has also averaged 0.5 points per game over that span. He’s cooled off from an offensive standpoint after a hot stretch in January but Skjei has produced 10.0 or more DKFP six times in his last 14 starts.
Both of these games have 6.0 over/under’s attached to them but the quality of the offenses is much higher in the Carolina-Toronto game. Value-mining at positions like defense from those two high-quality rosters should lead us to Skjei today, who is available at his cheapest price-point in eight games.
Power Play Defensemen
Morgan Rielly, Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Carolina Hurricanes ($5,700)
The Leafs’ power-play is rolling at the moment as they’ve moved up to first in overall efficiency with the man advantage. A big cog in that machine for Toronto is Morgan Rielly, who enters this contest with 11 points in his last 10 games—five of which have come on special teams. The Leafs will almost certainly need their power-play to come through again today against a quality team like Carolina, and with the Leafs set as small favorites, loading up on this unit is something you’ll certainly want to explore at a couple of positions.
It’s worth noting too that all three of the top defensemen on this slate have averaged between 10-11.00 DKFP over their last 10 starts and yet Rielly is the least expensive of the three by a wide margin. Get some exposure to the TO power-play and some good value all in one swoop with the underrated Rielly.
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