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After some unfortunate beats with some good closing line value to begin the week, we finished strong in NBA over the weekend. Let’s look to keep rolling on Monday. I have my eye on a couple of sizable road favorites, but do want to get some injury news cleared up before firing.
Per usual, I’ll put everything official up on Twitter that I bet on personally. This is a betting guide for this NBA card, and anything I’ve actually bet will include a unit amount.
The Bulls just aren’t themselves right now, operating without 2-4 of their guards that play major minutes in the rotation, and still thin at power forward as well. Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso were major pieces of all of Chicago’s early success this season, and remain out long-term. Zack LaVine has been in and out of the lineup recently, and is questionable, along with Coby White. If LaVine is out, I’m probably comfortable backing the Suns here.
Phoenix is getting healthy at the right time, and it’s shown. The Suns are an insane 20-5 straight up on the road, including 16-9 ATS. Meanwhile, the Bulls will continue to try and limp to the finish line. Chicago lost on the road on Sunday, and DeMar DeRozan exerted a ton of energy in 41 minutes, posting a 45-9-7 line.
Jimmy Butler is questionable for this one, and that’s the last piece I’m waiting on here before firing on Miami. While the Wizards did get a big win last week, they’ve generally been atrocious with Bradley Beal out of the line. Washington is on an abysmal 2-13 ATS run, failing to cover five in a row at home.
Then there’s Miami, which has looked sharp since returning Kyle Lowry to the lineup. The Heat will likely be without Tyler Herro in this one, but have enough off the bench to get by against Washington. As long as the Miami starting five is in place, it should run away with this one. Coming off three straight losses with different pieces out of the lineup, the Heat have won their last two at full strength by a combined 35 points.
If we get the news we want on these teams, a Suns/Heat Moneyline Parlay (-115) is also very much in play.
Phoenix Suns at Chicago Bulls
We’ve crushed Dosunmu props for the most part recently, as he’s seeing a huge workload with how banged up the Bulls are. This play is attached to the injury news we’re waiting on to potentially back the Suns. No Ball and Caruso opens up the minutes we need, but if LaVine and/or White are out, then Dosunmu’s usage goes to another level. I was able to snag O5.5 assists on Sunday before it went off the board and came back at 6.5. I’m probably good backing this one if we see it at 6.5 or lower. Ayo’s had six or more assists in 10 of his last 13 games, which is when the Bulls started playing without a majority of their guards. Dosunmu’s had at least seven assists in each of his last five games, averaging 9.8 during that span.
— PHX 15-10 1Q ATS on road.
— CHI 10-16 1Q ATS at home.
— MIA 17-12-1 1H ATS on road.
— WAS 17-32-3 1H ATS.
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