The Valspar Championship is the last tournament in Florida this season, and we’re just a few weeks away from the Masters Tournament. This course will be challenging, ranking sixth toughest (out of 51) in scoring relative to par in the 2019-20 season. Like most courses in Florida, wind and water hazards will be a factor this week, but not as penal as the last few weeks. Mix that in with undulations not usually seen on Florida courses, a few tricky par 4s, five par 3s and the ‘Snake Pit’; you’ll start to see why winning scores average around 10-under par over the last few years.
Over the previous five years, the average winning odds were just under +5800, with the longest coming from Adam Hadwin at +12500 in 2017 and the shortest coming from Paul Casey at +2500 two years in a row (2018, 2019).
For a full course preview, key statistics breakdown and additional players to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook, refer to the DraftKings Preview on DraftKings Playbook. Here are the bets we should be considering this week.
All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Let’s chalk his MC last week to bad luck with the wrong side of the tee draw and look at the positives, which is he still gained strokes with his irons, making it five straight measured events being on the plus side through approach. If we omit THE PLAYERS, his last three events read ninth at Arnold Palmer Invitational, 10th at the WM Phoenix Open and sixth at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. As mentioned in the preview article, Fitzpatrick is dialed in on the par 5s, ranking top-3 in par 5 efficiency over the previous 24 rounds. He’s still looking for his first win on TOUR, and it could very well be this week.
Lowry has been quite impressive on the Florida Swing, with a runner-up at The Honda Classic, a tournament he could’ve easily won if not for a late Sunday rain squall, and a top-15 in some of the worst weather conditions we’ve seen at TPC Sawgrass. Fatigue could be a factor, but we should be willing to look past it and directly into how well he sets up for the Copperhead Course - elite with his long-irons, top-notch on the greens and solid tee to green, ranking top-5 over his last dozen rounds.
Two top-5 finishes in his previous three starts, and while he got the good end of the tee draw last week, it’s not his favorite course, missing the cut for the second-straight year. He’s much better on these shorter, more demanding courses where he can club down, and even though he’s MC here in his previous three starts, this was also the site of his first PGA TOUR win, the 2011 Transitions Championship, which was played in March as well. His near win at Bay Hill should have him ready for another tough test in Florida.
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