DraftKings contributor Geoff Ulrich joins Adam Kaufman to break down some of the odds and lines for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Well, potential value and significant value, let’s talk Sepp Straka (+10000), man. He is +10000 on the DraftKings Sportsbook to go out for another win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He’s +700 for a Top-10, you chasing or fading him this weekend?
You know, I don’t mind this for a Top-10. I know the feeling with most people as well. He’s coming off his first there’s going to be a hangover. You can’t bet guys like this, but I mean, we had this scenario two years ago with Keith Mitchell, another Georgia Bulldog. He was like; these guys are teammates, these guys are really good friends and Keith Mitchell was in the form of his life and guess what he did after winning the Honda Classic? He came to the Arnold Palmer and finished sixth. He was in contention and I think there’s a real chance this field isn’t that strong. Yeah, I know Jon Rahm and Rory are here but after those two, it tails off quick. Especially with Bryson out so this is almost a very similar feel to what we’re getting last week. You’ve got Sepp Straka coming in here in the form of his life right now and I think for a Top-10 +700, I’m actually surprised. You’re getting better odds on him than a guy like Chris Kirk who he beat straight-up last week. Luke List, Lanto Griffin, I mean, these are all players. Straka, again, coming off a week at the Honda and these courses are very similar in terms of just what they demand. You’ve got to hit pressure approach shots over water. Straka was doing that all week last week, so I think these are very fair odds for a Top-10 again. I’m not going to hit them out to win twice in a row, but absolutely man. If you want to take a shot at I think the odds are more than fair, surprised to see him that high, to be honest.
Sungjae Im (+2200) was a favorite at the Honda Classic. Didn’t go so well obvisouly. Geoff, he is +2200 to bounce back and win this thing. Do you feel good about that? Chase or fade him?
Interestingly enough, I was kind of ready to say you could think about Sungjae this week but with Bryson in the field and bigger odds I’m not sure how you take Sunjae over Bryson. Now, Bryson’s not in the field and Sunjae is still +2200. I think of it if anything, like the Bryson withdrawal, it really makes Sunjae look a lot better. From a betting perspective, this is a player who has lots of experience playing in Florida. He’s seen really good results, obviously has a win at the Honda Classic. Like I said PJ National and Bay Hill, they do demand similar stuff from their players. Sunjae Im, multiple top finishes out at Arnold Palmer too. There’s one thing I’ve already thrown out on Twitter but the winners here, they have experience playing at Bay Hill and it’s not just experience, it’s experience getting in the mix. Sunjae Im a Top-5 finisher a couple years back that’s what most of the past recent winners have done. They’ve gotten in the mix at Bay Hill before they win. I really like Sunjae at +2200, I think the only reason his odds aren’t even this high this week because he’s coming off a missed cut. He does everything well; he’s got the kind of game to compete on these more challenging major championship-like courses and i think these are more than fair odds this week to take a shot with.
Tyrell Hatton (+2800) on DK Sportsbook to win this thing. He won in 2020, which safe to say, was a memorable year for ever other reason. What do you think of him?
Hatton, obviously, a former winner and another guy who’s game you know tee-to-green he can handle these tougher courses. We’ve seen him in a final pairing of the US Open or up there in the US Open before as well. My biggest problem with Hatton is he hasn’t done that much over in Europe and this is going to be his first start over on the mainland USA on the PGA TOUR this year. Now we’ve seen that work out for Euro players quite a bit here but I mean we also have seen those guys were were doing something on the other two or getting in contention maybe even picking up a win. It just doesn’t seem to be clicking for Hatton right now and quite frankly, going back to the fall last year too, it really hasn’t been clicking for Hatton for a while. Missing the cut of the last two majors doing, nothing in the playoffs, I think the only reason he’s really available at +2800 this week is just respect for a former past champion. I’m not really interested at all. I wish Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2000) who’s at +2000 right now on DraftKings Sportsbook was bigger odds because that would be 100% my my target. If i’m picking between those two, I’ll take the lower odds on Fitzpatrick. I don’t care I think Fitzpatrick is way closer to winning right now, he’s got a great record at this event too, so you know Hatton +2800 these bigger odds and Fitzpatrick, I can see why some people might just say I’m taking the value there. I think Fitzpatrick is the better player this week and I think you just got to pay up. I think you just got to hold your nose and do it, I know _2000 from Matthew Fitzpatrick doesn’t sound great. this guy’s got a high caliber game too and he’s been in way better form than Hatton.
Geoff, Marc Leishhman (+2800) not unlike Hatton. Matter of fact, you look back at history, I mean he finished second in 2020 to Hatton, he won this event in 2017. So are you chasing or fading him here?
Yeah, another player at this range who I would happily get on over him. Mark Leishman, also an ambassador for this event. He’s really taken to it. So it’s almost like another major from Leishman every year. You mentioned he’s not only got the win, but he’s got a bunch of top finishes and that is typically what we’ve seen from winners here. They get themselves in contention. This is a tough course, you’ve really got to figure your way around it. You can’t take too many chances you’ll blow up too quick. You’ve got to understand how to play the par fives. Some of them offer you some good risk-reward but others, when you get in certain spots, you’ve got to kind of take your medicine and Leishman knows how to do that. He’s been trending well this year, he’s gained strokes on approach over a stroke on approach and five straight starts now coming off a couple Top-15 finishes. If I’m looking at this range, we’ve mentioned Sungjae Im, I mentioned I like Matthew Fitzpatrick but Mark Leishman; I wish his odds were bigger too because he’s right there with Hideki Matsuyama but it’s hard for me to say he shouldn’t be a target for you. So, pick your poison in this range. If I had to rank them, I would start with Fitzpatrick even though his odds are lowest, but Leishman would be my second guy, so a lot of interesting names in this range. I think that you can make a lot of cases for guys you know with Jon Rahm such short odds and with Bryson no longer being in the field, I think this is a range people are really going to gravitate. Hideki Matsuyama there too. Leishman is certainly in the mix and he’s been playing well and i will not be shocked if he gets himself in the mix again this week.
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