The WGC Dell Technologies Match Play starts this Wednesday and is always an event that brings a ton of surprises. This year we have a few big names sitting out, with Hideki Matsuyama, Sam Burns and Rory McIlroy being the most noticeable absences. One big name who is returning this week is Bryson DeChambeau, who we last saw early in the year at the Farmers. Bryson has dropped down to 13th in the OWGR and his return this week will likely tell a lot about where he is in his recovery—and how much of a factor he’ll be at Augusta.
Florida has brought about some big swings in the Power Rankings as names like Patrick Cantlay and SungJae Im have cooled off after hot starts. Meanwhile, players like Daniel Berger (top 10 at the Honda and Players) and Matthew Fitzpatrick (top 10 at API and Valspar) have climbed. SungJae’s odds have dropped down to +4500 this week (below Fitzpatrick and Berger), Berger still looks like solid value at just +2800 and with bigger odds than players like Xander Schauffele and Dustin Johnson, who he has simply been better than of late.
This event has seen plenty of mid-tier and longer shot winners of late. The +4000 to +8000 range is where the last three winners at the WGC Match Play have been spawned and this year’s field has plenty of interesting names at those levels. Max Homa (+6000) has recorded four straight top 20s, and he has been striking the ball extremely well, gaining over +7.0 strokes ball-striking in his last two starts. Alex Noren (+6000) has also now made six cuts in a row, and he too has been been striking the ball with much more consistency of late. Both men seem like they’re playing well enough to make a run this week if they can get past the tricky group stage.
A lot of what happens this week will depend on the draw, and I’d be remiss if I didn’t at least mention Russell Henley (+3500) in that regard. He’s up in the power rankings this week after two T13 finishes in Florida. He has a very winnable group headlined by the out of form Kevin Na, an alternate in Maverick McNealy and Joaquin Niemann—who is a great young talent, but has only played this event once before.
A reminder that we can also bet on groups this week on the DraftKings Sportsbook and we have plenty of underdogs to target there, too. Patrick Reed (+300 to win Group 1) and Keith Mitchell (+300 to win Group 4) are two players who stand out. Reed has never posted a losing record in the group stage at this event since 2016 and Mitchell (who has cracked the top 25 in the Power Rankings this week) has played beautifully of late and ranks top 20 in birdies gained in this field over the last 50 rounds.
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