Detroit brings a 16-12-4 home record into this game, which isn’t good by league standards, but is good compared to the Flyers’ road record. Philadelphia is a miserable 7-16-5 on the road this season and has seen six of their last eight road losses come by two or more goals. Both of these teams lost players at the trade deadline but the loss of Claude Giroux is undoubtedly the most impactful for either team. Detroit’s young core should be viewing this as an opportunity to rack up goals against wounded prey. Take them to cover the puck line today.
Neither of these teams have a good home or away record this season but it is the Coyotes who have shown more life of late. The Coyotes are 4-3 in Arizona over their last seven home games and have picked up bigger wins over teams like Dallas and Las Vegas. Their offense has been trending much better of late and their likely starter, Karel Vejmelka, will have a freshly minted contract he’ll want to show off for. There’s a bit of value in taking the Coyotes on the Moneyline at what is nearly a pick-em type line.
Dallas Stars vs. Edmonton Oilers
Roope Hintz ($6,000) — Joe Pavelski ($6,000) — Jason Robertson ($6,600)
We targeted the Oilers last night and were rewarded with a mammoth three-goal night from Colorado’s first line. Now the Oilers are on the tail-end of a back-to-back and are facing another team with a dominant top-line in the Stars.
Hintz, Pavelski and Robertson have been joined at the hip for most of the season and now enter this game with Edmonton with the fourth-most goals scored of any line in the NHL. It’s been slower going for fantasy purposes of late from these three, with Hintz being the only one of the three with any goals scored over the last four games. A home matchup with Edmonton should help rectify the slump though and it is worth noting that both Hintz and Pavelski have been far more productive fantasy players at home this year.
Considering Edmonton’s issues slowing down top-end talent, and the fact we have Dallas’ top-line playing in their preferred home setting, the salaries on these three look exceedingly low today—even despite their slow past few games. Taking the sub-$7K salaries on this line is a great way to start things off and will leave you with a solid amount of room at other positions.
Superstar to Target
Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings vs. Philadelphia Flyers ($6,400)
Much like last night with Brad Marchand vs. the Canadiens, we’ll target a high-end value in a great matchup again today with Dylan Larkin going up against the Philadelphia Flyers. Larkin is still managing well over a point-per-game on the season (despite a slow last 10 games) and should be in a great spot to break out of his recent slump. The Flyers just traded away one of their longest-tenured players in Claude Giroux and have allowed the fourth-most shots this season—and have one of the worst penalty kills in the league.
Larkin’s got solid positive splits when playing at home and has averaged 2.4 DKFP more per game when situated in Detroit. We’re used to seeing Larkin priced well over $7,000 in these spots from early in the season, so being able to grab him for under $6,500 makes him an easy player to build around. Any breakout by Detroit likely flows through his stick today.
Value on Offense
Alexis Lafreniere, New York Rangers at New Jersey Devils ($2,900)
The Rangers have been using Lafreniere more on the top line of late and that’s translated to assists by the second-year winger in three straight games. Even if his exposure on special teams is going to remain limited you still have to love his situation to pick up a point or more against the Devils today, a team who remains fifth-last in goals against on the season. Lafreniere and the Rangers are solid -155 favorites in a game with a 6.0 goal total, so grabbing a cheap piece of their top-six is more than warranted. He’s played better of late and could easily keep the point streak rolling tonight at a salary below $3K.
Nick Schmaltz, Arizona Coyotes vs. Seattle Kraken ($5,000)
As far as upper-tier values go, we shouldn’t hate going back to the well with Nick Schmaltz in this spot, a player who was priced $700 more expensive than this two games ago against Pittsburgh. Schmaltz has been pointless for a couple of starts now—after grabbing six goals in six games previously—but faces off against the Kraken at home today. Seattle is bottom-six in terms of goals allowed and penalty-kill efficiency this year and Schmaltz has now averaged over a point-per-game at home this season. Grabbing him as a one-off against a weak defensive squad today is a good use of salary.
Igor Shesterkin, New York Rangers at New Jersey Devils ($8,200)
The Rangers are likely to start Shesterkin today after giving Alex Georgiev a go in their last start. Shesterkin has shown no let-up this season and enters this game with New Jersey averaging 19.1 DKFP over his last 10 games while maintaining a solid road record that includes a .934 save percentage in 20 road starts this season. The Rangers are solid -145 favorites today and should be buoyed after their team added some depth at the deadline. He’s a solid pay-up option again at just over $8,000 and brings his usual 20+ point upside to this matchup.
Anton Forsberg, Ottawa Senators vs. New York Islanders ($6,800)
If you want to roll the dice in GPPs and save a ton of cash at goalie, then Forsberg is worth a look today. Forsberg has posted a .929 save percentage in 15 road appearances this season and comes into this game having stopped 28 of 29 shots faced against Philly in his last outing. The Islanders can be very hit or miss and they’ve scored two or fewer goals in two of their last three games. Forsberg’s a big underdog but at under $7,000 is worth the risk for big field GPPs, where a win or big outing would drastically bolster your lineup.
Value on Defense
Josh Morrissey, Winnipeg Jets vs. Vegas Golden Knights ($4,400)
The Jets take on a Golden Knights squad who is coming off a 3-0 loss last night to the Wild. Vegas hasn’t been great in any aspect of the game lately and now sit fifth-last in terms of scoring chances allowed this season. The Jets defense isn’t exactly a deep squad but lately, Josh Morrissey has been elevating his play. He’s grabbed two power-play points in his last 10 games and has also averaged a stout 4.2 blocked shots + shots on goal per game over that same stretch.
Morrissey has taken over as the top point option on the PP1 for the Jets of late, and that’s elevated both his point production and shot totals in the short term. With him available at under $4,500 today, there’s no reason to shy away from using him as either a one-off value or as part of a Jets power-play stack. The Golden Knights have turned into a decent fantasy matchup and Morrissey looks like solid value today as a result.
Power Play Defensemen
Adam Fox, New York Rangers at New Jersey Devils ($6,900)
The Devils remain a team we don’t mind seeing as an opponent for our daily fantasy hockey targets. New Jersey doesn’t rate out terribly in any one metric, but they are not great defensively at anything either and have just a league-average penalty-kill. Adam Fox has really elevated his play in the back half of the season and enters this game with 12 real-life points scored in his last 10 games.
Fox doesn’t bring us the blocked shots or shots on net totals that other elite defensemen bring (for fantasy purposes) but his usage and production on special teams is near unmatched. The Rangers have a solid implied team total over 3.2 today and have moved to third in power-play efficiency on the season. Using Fox as an anchor on your blue line is a great way to get exposure to the Rangers offense, a unit that feels like they’re in a great breakout spot against a Devils team who has allowed 3.6 goals per game this season.
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