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NBA Betting, Fantasy Advice: DraftKings Basketball DFS Picks, Predictions, Odds for March 28

Nick Friar breaks down Monday’s NBA slate with game analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

NBA: Orlando Magic at Oklahoma City Thunder Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports

The NBA Cheat Sheet provides an in-depth look at Monday’s nine-game main slate, featuring DFS and Sportsbook picks.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.


Top scoring game environments on DraftKings Sportsbook

Hawks-Pacers: 235 points
Spurs-Rockets: 234.5 points
Nuggets-Hornets: 232.5 points

Trae Young ($10,800) is definitely someone worth getting exposure to if you’re running multiple lineups, but he’s not my favorite stud of the night. (That player is featured among these three games and is highlighted at the end of the article.)

When looking for mid-range options among these three teams, Aaron Gordon ($5,700) is actually worth your attention Monday. He’s scored 20-plus points in three of Denver’s last five, and the Hornets — who are 23rd in defensive rating and fifth in pace — are vulnerable, playing the second leg of their back-to-back.

As for value from these three scoring environments, Josh Richardson ($4,700) is someone worth chasing. He’s points-reliant, but he’s going up against a Rockets team that’s as bad as it gets defensively, and they’re an uptempo matchup for San Antonio. Moreover, he’s scored 15-plus points in five of his last six games played, resulting in over five-times value in each of those games.


Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $400K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st]


Scheduling Notes

3rd game in 4th night

Knicks, Warriors, Heat, Rockets, Trail Blazers

2nd night of a back-to-back

Knicks, Warriors, Hornets, Celtics

1st night of a back-to-back

Bulls


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Key Injury to Monitor

Celtics SF/PF Jayson Tatum ($10,500) vs. Raptors
Celtics SG/SF Jaylen Brown ($8,100) vs. Raptors
Heat PG/SG Tyler Herro ($7,200) vs. Kings
Grizzlies PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr. ($7,600) vs. Warriors

Tatum and Brown aren’t on the early injury report for Monday’s action, but both were listed on Sunday’s IR — albeit as probable. Tatum seems like the one more in question. If he’s a no-go, Brown is a must-start. If one or both are out, Marcus Smart ($6,000) becomes one of the best mid-range plays of the night, and both Grant Williams ($4,400) and Payton Pritchard ($3,900) become value options to consider on Monday.

Also, check Smart’s 3-pointers made and points props of Tatum doesn’t play. They still might be appealing if Brown is out, but Tatum takes up more volume.


Favorite Pick Against the Spread

Thunder -2.5 at Trail Blazers

On the surface, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s absence is reason to have pause about this game. But, OKC — one of the best teams ATS this season — have covered six straight and in seven of the last eight. Of the Thunder’s last four games, SGA has missed three. And while Darius Bazley’s (doubtful) likely absence could have some semblance of an impact, he missed most of Sunday’s game vs. Denver, and the Thunder still only lost by single digits.

Portland, on the other hand, couldn’t even beat the Rockets in back-to-back chances. The Blazers have lost 13 of their last 15, and only two of those games were single-digit losses (nine vs. Atlanta on March 14 and five vs. Brooklyn on March 18).


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Favorite Player Prop

Nuggets SG Will Barton: over 2.5 3-pointers vs. Hornets

Davion Mitchell also has an appealing 3-pointers prop (over 2.5 +145), but Barton gets the edge here because of his consistency. He hasn’t been peppering the over on this mark, but the Denver guard has been shooting well from deep and gets the volume to hit this over on any night.

Barton has made two 3-pointers in each of Denver’s last five games, and two-plus in nine of his last 10 games played. He’s only gone over this number once in that 10-game span, but Monday’s setting is what should get Barton over the hump.

While the Nuggets are fighting to stay out of the play-in tournament, the Hornets are trying to at least stay in it, so they should, at minimum, attempt to battle Denver. But, they’re not a strong defensive team (bottom 10 in opponent 3-point percentage) and on the second leg of a back-to-back. Between Barton’s form and the potential this uptempo matchup provides, he’s in a spot to pour it in from deep.


Favorite Value Play

Thunder PG Theo Maledon ($4,500) vs. Trail Blazers

Every available Thunder play is priced under $5.9K for Monday’s action. I wouldn’t be stunned if every lineup in the $400K Fadeaway featured at least one OKC player. There are so many ways to go about it, and they’re taking on the lowly Blazers.

Of the bunch, Maledon has the best blend of value and ceiling potential. The Blazers have given up the fourth-most DKFP to opposing point guards this season — their worst number against any position. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out the last two games — as is the case vs. Portland — Maledon has logged two 32-minute performances, logging 43 then 32 DKFP.


Favorite Stud

Spurs PG Dejounte Murray ($11,000) vs. Rockets

San Antonio’s point guard is the second-most expensive player on the slate, but he’s a $1.2K discount from Nikola Jokic ($12,200). As much as Denver’s big man has an appealing matchup vs. Charlotte, Murray has torched the Rockets each time he’s seen them this season. Also, while the Hornets are on the second leg of a back-to-back, Houston is playing its third game in four days.

And for those who haven’t been paying attention, the Rockets have the worst team defensive rating in the league and are second in pace. Lastly, Houston has given up the second-most DKFP to opposing point guards this season.


Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $400K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st]


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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is dk-nfriar) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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