All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Per usual, I’ll put everything official up on Twitter that I bet on personally. This is a betting guide for this NBA card, and anything I’ve actually bet will include a unit amount.
I haven’t written an NBA article in three weeks, and I still feel like you should know the Grizzlies 1Q team total over is still the hottest play in the NBA (with or without Ja Morant). Memphis did actually drop a couple of these after being on a 20-1 run dating back to January, but has since bounced back. The Grizz have cashed three 1Q TT overs in a row now, pushing the overall streak to a 23-3 run. As we say, no Ja no problem, topping 40 points in two of the last three, and going for 32 against a strong Milwaukee defense. Time to lock it in again going up against a Warriors team resting most of their top players.
In the same realm as the 1Q TT, we’re also going to lay the spread for the quarter here and hope to cash both. Moran’t absence hasn’t slowed this team down a bit, and the Grizzlies have been a first quarter machine — an NBA-best 46-28-1 1Q ATS. That includes 24-13 1Q ATS at home, and a 9-2 1Q ATS run with an average lead of more than seven points at the end of the quarter.
Meanwhile, the Warriors are just 12-25 1Q ATS on the road this season, including a 4-8 1Q ATS skid in their last twelve overall. No Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green or Otto Porter for Golden State. Look for Memphis to pounce early.
Tough news for the Celtics with Rob Williams suffering a meniscus tear on Sunday that’ll put him on the shelf for an extended period of time. Boston has been the best team in the NBA for a couple of months now, but on the second night of a back-to-back and a big home game on Wednesday, the C’s will get some rest for this divisional matchup.
Williams is obviously out, and Al Horford will remain out after sitting on Sunday for personal reasons. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have also been ruled out, which pushed this line significantly. Toronto is probably a safe moneyline parlay piece if you need it, but I’m going to be monitoring player props for the Celtics, who are down four starters and a massive chunk of scoring production on the wing. As I’m writing, Marcus Smart, Derrick White and Grant Williams are the only three players available to bet props on. I want to see how this board develops before potentially getting a play in. But this is a situation to monitor.
Poeltl has been a popular prop over play this season, and now finds himself in an ideal spot and matchup. The Spurs’ big man is playing well, averaging a double-double over his last four games. Houston, which ranks dead last defending the center position this season, has already given up some big games to Poeltl — he averages 17.3 points and 8.3 rebounds in three meetings. The Rockets seem to be in full tank mode, and could be down Christian Wood for this game. Some combination of Poeltl points/rebounds props could be in play here.
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