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I’ll get to Karl-Anthony-Towns ($10,600) a little more later on, but
D’Angelo Russell ($8,200) is a strong option to consider with Anthony Edwards ($7,600) likely out. On the other side of that matchup, Keon Johnson ($3,900) is a great value to chase with Anfernee Simons unavailable and the rookie coming off a strong showing against this same Minnesota team.
With Dejounte Murray ($11,100) cleared to play after initially being deemed questionable, there’s not as much value to be had on San Antonio’s side. Lonnie Walker IV ($4,200; doubtful) was going to be a popular play if the Spurs’ superstar didn’t play. But with Walker and Devin Vassell ($5,600) both doubtful, Keldon Johnson ($6,300) becomes a strong mid-range option.
3rd game in 4th night
2nd night of a back-to-back
Jazz, Nuggets, Knicks, Rockets
1st night of a back-to-back
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Key Injury to Monitor
Lakers SF LeBron James ($11,600) vs. Spurs
Bulls C Nikola Vucevic ($8,600) vs. 76ers
Heat PG Victor Oladipo ($6,600) vs. Rockets
Oladipo’s status isn’t as important as the other three players listed here, but it’s something to keep tabs on — especially with Kyle Lowry ($7,300) upgraded to questionable after missing time for personal reasons. Both could be on a minutes limit, but there’s no way of telling how they’ll impact everyone’s usage if both play.
If Vucevic doesn’t suit up, Zach LaVine ($8,300) becomes one of Monday’s best $8K-range options. The guard is coming off a strong showing, and he posts a 34.1% usage rate and 1.21 DKFP per minute with LaVine off the floor this season. DeMar DeRozan ($9,700) does get a higher bump in those categories, but there are better ways to spend on players valued at $9K or more.
Favorite Pick Against the Spread
The Jazz are not good ATS this season, but I like them straight-up in this one. They responded to a miserable January with an 8-1 February, and the Jazz have maintained this strong run, winning two of the three games they’ve played in March.
As much as the Mavericks were almost as good in February as Utah and have won their last four, Luka Doncic just missed a game due to a toe injury and Jalen Brunson is out. Doncic is probable Monday, but that could still have an impact on how he plays vs. Utah. Also, while Doncic did well vs. the Jazz on Feb. 25, the Mavericks took the L in that meeting.
Favorite Player Prop
Backing Eubanks to log a double-double (+400) is worth some attention Monday, but I like his points+rebounds if we’re talking whole-unit plays. Eubanks has gotten an increased volume of shot opportunities in Portland’s last three games, and he’ll once again have to log significant minutes with Jusuf Nurkic out and KAT opposite the Blazers. And while taking the over on his points prop (10.5) allows for a slightly higher payout, I’d rather incorporate Eubanks’ rebounds to protect from a slight regression in offensive efficiency.
Favorite Value Play
Warriors PG Jordan Poole ($5,300) vs. Nuggets
No Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson or Andrew Wiggins for the Warriors vs. Denver (on top of Draymond Green). That puts Poole in a big spot to go off.
Without those four on the floor this season, Poole has posted a 33.9% usage rate and 1.19 DKFP per minute. And when the Warriors saw the Nuggets back on Feb. 16 with those three players in the lineup, Poole still provided over five-times value.
Timberwolves C Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,600) vs. Trail Blazers
The Nuggets are on the second leg of a back-to-back and in a potential blowout spot with Curry out for Golden State, so I can’t give Nikola Jokic ($12,600) top billing. Joel Embiid ($12,000) is still producing, but the addition of James Harden ($11,400) hurts the center’s ceiling.
That brings it down to Luka Doncic ($12,200) and KAT, and I like the latter more Monday. The biggest reason being: he’s in the same scenario he was on Saturday. Only difference is he’s at home, where he’s been better this season.
Yes, Portland provides potential for a blowout. But with Edwards doubtful to play, KAT has the chance to explode again. The big man has a 32.4% usage rate with Edwards off the floor this season, and he posts a whopping 1.53 DKFP per minute in that same setting.
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