THE PLAYERS Championship will host most of the top 50 in the world and will be the third year the tournament will play in March instead of May. Since its move, the two winners have been Rory McIlroy (2019) and Justin Thomas (2021), a couple of the best players in the world. Still, we’ve seen golfers like Lee Westwood, Brian Harman, Jim Furyk and Jhonattan Vegas finish inside the top-3 over the last two years; TPC Sawgrass is a course that caters to those who are playing well at the moment.
Jon Rahm’s odds have are four-digits for the first time this season, and while it looks like Rahm is ‘struggling’, he’s still number one in the power rankings. His short game has been bad, losing around the greens in five straight and negative putting in his previous three events. Still, he’s number one in SG: ball-striking (a combination of off the tee and approach) with a top-12 (2019) and top-10 (2021) in his last two starts at TPC Sawgrass.
A near win at PGA National two weeks ago should not go unnoticed. Daniel Berger rises to fifth this week, five spots higher than where he is in his outright odds. Two top-10s at TPC Sawgrass precedes his ball-striking, ranking top-10 over his previous 24 rounds.
Brooks Koepka also jumps higher on the rankings compared to his outright odds. A top-3 in Phoenix, 16th at the Honda Classic and looking healthy, Brooks is firmly inside the top-10, especially on a course that will play challenging with a strong field.
Justin Thomas is the defending champion and playing well, but he’s moving down in the rankings compared to his outright market odds. There’s never been a back-to-back winner in the tournament’s history, and while Thomas is firmly inside the top-10, there are a few more golfers who’ve earned a bump with how they’ve played in Florida this season.
A top-20 feels conservative in the rankings for someone who could be in the mix come the weekend. Max Homa’s last three finishes read 17th at Bay Hill, 10th at Riviera CC and 14th at TPC Scottsdale, where he gained an average of 5.5 strokes with his ball-striking over these events. He’s also been positive on the greens in five of his previous six starts.
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