The Jets’ playoff hopes are dim at best but that flicker of light is likely to keep them motivated today against a Canadiens team that is just 2-6 over their last eight home games. The Canadiens have bagged a couple of nice wins of late, but the last time they returned home after a road trip they fell flat to the Senators. The Jets are 6-2 in their last eight road games, and even with a multitude of injuries, they are still just simply the better team. The -145 doesn’t reflect that (enough) and looks like decent value in this spot.
For props, the Jets’ side is again the side we likely want to be on. The Canadiens allow 34.7 shots per game, the third-worst mark in the league. Dubois remains a hugely integral part of the Jets’ top-six and PP1 and averaged over 19.0 minutes a game in his last 10 outings. Dubois’ shot volume can be a little hit or miss, but he’s landed 16 on net alone in his last four games. The urgency for some of the Jets’ top forwards is showing and Dubois has gone over this mark in three of his last six outings. At +130, there’s value in this matchup to be on the over as well.
Nikolaj Ehlers, Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens ($14,400)
The Jets are banged up right now with both Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheifele set to miss this game but their absence has been picked up of late by solid play from Nikolaj Ehlers. Ehlers has always been a bit of a streaky scorer, and right now he’s shooting the puck a ton, averaging 4.7 shots on net over his last 10 games alone. He’s got a 4.5 over/under shot total on DraftKings Sportsbook and will be taking on a Canadiens team who allows a ton of shots on goal and still is in possession of a bottom-five penalty-kill unit. If we’re weighing recent form, Ehlers is the most likely Jet to produce a three-point or multiple-goal game for us and he also comes cheaper than Kyle Connor ($16,200), who brings similar upside but is nearly $2,000 more expensive.
Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens ($16,800)
The Jets haven’t confirmed their goalie today, but if it is Hellebuyck, then he’ll have a great shot at being the high scorer in this game. The former Vezina winner has been extremely solid over the short-term, posting a .926 save percentage over his last 10 games. He did play last night, but with the Jets needing to essentially win out, it seems likely we’ll see him in the net once again. If anything, the back-to-back scenario may even draw people off him a little tonight, but he remains one of the best upside options for DFS purposes if he starts.
Cole Caufield, Montreal Canadiens vs. Winnipeg Jets ($11,700)
If we’re targeting the Montreal Canadiens side then we should likely be prepared for a higher scoring game. The Canadiens’ goalies have been terrible for most of the season and they’ve scored five or more goals in each of their last two wins. Cole Caufield has easily been the most dangerous Canadiens forward of late and comes in with goals in each of his last four games. While we don’t get too many slate-breaking kind of nights from Montreal players, the chances of Caufield breaking out seem bigger than a shutout or dominant night from whoever starts for them in net. Caufield should be the contrarian Captain target from Montreal we target today.
Pierre-Luc Dubois, Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens ($8,600)
We made the case for going over on Dubois’ shot total above and the center should be in a spot to play bigger minutes tonight as well. Mark Scheifele is out for Winnipeg and Dubois is coming off his best game in over 10 starts. He’s a shoot-first kind of center which only adds to the upside appeal against a club like Montreal. Price-wise, he’s also the cheapest of the Jets’ top-three forwards and makes sense to use in the flex if you’re targeting another of their big names in the CPT spot.
Josh Morrissey, Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens ($8,200)
With the Jets forward crew banged up, we’ve seen Josh Morrissey start to factor in more on the scoresheet of late for the Jets. He acts as the primary quarterback on the blueline for their top power-play unit and comes in having landed 14 of his 38 points on the season with the man advantage. Morrissey has also started to produce more in other categories, having hit the blocked shot bonus in two of his last four games. He’s also landed three or more shots in four of his last five. It’s pricey, but his floor may be the best of any Jets skill players available and he correlates well with any of the big-name forwards.
Jeff Petry, Montreal Canadiens vs. Winnipeg Jets ($6,400)
Outside of Caufield, who makes for a solid contrarian captain’s pick, Petry might be the most reliable Canadiens player for daily fantasy hockey purposes, which does tell you something about their team. Petry is playing more of a defensive role for Montreal but it’s led to him becoming one of the premier shot blockers in the league. The veteran is averaging an elite 5.2 blocked shots +shots on goal per game over his last 10 starts and has hit the DraftKings blocked shots bonus in seven of his last eight games. Petry’s peripheral stats could easily be a huge factor for Showdown given his affordable price tag.
Joel Armia, Montreal Canadiens vs. Winnipeg Jets ($2,000)
If you’re looking for a cheaper punt option, then Joel Armia makes sense as a target. The Finnish winger is mired in somewhat of a miserable offensive season (like many of the Canadiens forwards) but plays solid minutes in a third-line role and has shown some signs of life of late with three or more shots on net in three of his last five games. Against a tired Jets team, Armia could find a little more space today and has the kind of goal + bonus upside we covet from players this cheap.
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