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DraftKings DFS Fantasy Golf Cheat Sheet: 2022 PGA TOUR RBC Heritage Picks

Geoff Ulrich gets you set for the RBC Heritage with winning trends and his picks for your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups.

The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.

Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $1M Pitch + Putt [$250K to 1st]


The Field

The week after The Masters will again feature The RBC Heritage in its normal place on the schedule. The Heritage often suffers from Masters fatigue in terms of strength of field but we have a very solid one for 2022, which includes 25 of the top 50 players in the OWGR, as of writing. Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay and Dustin Johnson are all top-10 players in the world who will be competing this week. They’ll be joined by recent event winners Stewart Cink, Webb Simpson and CT Pan.

It’s the week after The Masters, so some withdrawals could be coming, but so far the only name who has withdrawn is Abraham Ancer, who also withdrew from the Valero Texas Open two weeks ago for undisclosed reasons. The field is set at 144 players this week but be sure to check the DK Live app into Wednesday as we could see more golfers withdraw here after a tough week at Augusta.


The Course

Harbour Town Golf Links, Hilton Head, South Carolina

Par 71, 7,099 yards, Greens: TifEagle Bermuda

Harbour Town Golf Links is one of the most idyllic settings the players visit all year. The course was designed by Pete Dye and has some characteristics about it that make it quite unique, including some of the smallest Bermuda greens on the PGA TOUR (3,700 sq. ft. average) and narrow fairways that make placement off the tee crucial. Missing on the wrong side of the green or fairway can mean getting blocked out of an approach or having little to no chance at an up and down. The fact the course is set alongside the water means wind can often play a factor, too. The summer date in 2020 saw idyllic conditions abound — and led to record scoring — but cooler weather kept scores higher last year. A dominant performance by Cink (see below) still only saw the veteran reach 19-under par.

As far as setup goes, Harbour Town contains a nice mix of challenging and easier to score holes. Two of the par 5s set up well under 550 yards in length and present extremely good birdie and eagle opportunities for the players (assuming their drives find the fairway). There are plenty of challenging holes here, as well. Although the par 3s all measure in at a range of just 175-200 yards, a mix of small greens, water hazards and overhanging trees make them all tough to maneuver and they can yield a double-bogey or worse in an instant.

Harbour Town played as the 19th and 11th toughest course on the PGA TOUR in 2018 and 2019 but was only the 37th toughest (out of 41 courses) in 2020. Weather can play a massive role here and will likely dictate whether we get a birdie-fest or slightly tougher scoring. The course tends to cater to players with good short irons and around-the-green games as it calls for a lot of clubbing down off the tee. The average driving distance of the field here is 10-15 yards less than the average stop on the PGA TOUR and two of the past five winners here have lost strokes off the tee to the field for the week of their win. Hence, emphasizing distance off the tee or SG: OTT stats here is generally not a priority.

2022 Outlook: This time of year can be a little dicey in terms of the weather for this event, but the forecast looks decent for the 2022 renewal. We’re not far removed from Augusta in terms of geography, but it will be quite a bit warmer this week with highs between 75-80 forecast for all four days. Being seaside, this venue can also experience higher winds, but gusts look mostly benign for this time of year. Thursday afternoon is set to be the windiest wave of the first two days, but the difference is only 3-5 mph. Expect slightly easier scoring this year with higher green in regulation percentages and slightly more emphasis on proximity vs. around the green stats.


Last Five winners

2021—Stewart Cink -19 (over Harold Varner III -15)

2020—Webb Simpson -22 (over Abraham Ancer -21)

2019—CT Pan -12 (over Matt Kuchar -11)

2018—Satoshi Kodaira -12 (over Si Woo Kim playoff)

2017—Wes Bryan -13 (over Luke Donald -12)


Winning Trends

- Eight of the last 10 winners of The RBC Heritage had recorded TWO top-five (or better) finishes worldwide in the year of their victory before their win at Hilton Head.

- Eight of the last 11 winners had recorded a T23 or better in a previous year at this event before winning (two of the past five winners have also been first-timers at this event).

- The winner of The RBC Heritage has played in The Masters in six of the last eight runnings of this event — three of those six winners missed the cut at Augusta.


Winners Stats and Course Overview

Stewart Cink (19-under-par—2021)

2021 lead-in form (T12-T19-MC-MC-MC)

SG: OTT—+1.6

SG: APP—+8.5

SG: TTG—+13.7

SG: ATG—+3.5

SG: PUTT—+2.3

- This is very much a second-shot course, so emphasizing approach stats this week is a good idea. 2020 runner-up Abraham Ancer gained an incredible +11.8 strokes on approach here en route to a 21-under par score, while last year’s winner, Stewart Cink, gained +8.5 strokes on approach and led the field in that stat.

- Conversely, driving distance at Harbour Town typically isn’t a huge advantage. Two of the past five winners have lost strokes off the tee here for the week and none of the past four winners ranked inside the top-20 for SG: Off the Tee stats for the week of their win.

- In 2020, both Webb and Ancer gained over five strokes on approach, but Webb gained far more on and around the greens. Cink, also had a great week last year around the greens, gaining +3.5 strokes ATG against the field en route to victory.

- The small greens mean lots of getting up and down, even in good conditions, and around the green stats definitely should be emphasized along with approach and proximity metrics.



Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.

Matthew Fitzpatrick +1800 and $9,500

Comparables:

Maverick McNealy +5500 and $7,900

Comparables:

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.


HORSES FOR COURSES

1. Matt Kuchar ($7,800; best finishes: win-2014, 2nd-2019, T5-2015): Kuchar has played here 16 times since 2004 and never missed a cut. He won this event back in 2014 and has also finished second here as recently as 2019. He’s second in strokes gained total stats at this event over the past five years and finished T2 in his last start at the Valero.

2. Webb Simpson ($8,800; best finishes: 2nd {playoff loss}-2013, win-2020): In 2020, Webb finally grabbed a win at Harbour Town, a venue that is tailor-made for his game. The veteran has not missed the cut at Harbour Town in 11 straight starts now and also finished T9 at this event last season. He’s missed some time due to injury in 2022 but has two made cuts in a row under his belt, including a T35 last week at Augusta.

3. Patrick Cantlay ($10,000; best finishes: T3-2017; T3-2019): Cantlay’s typically excelled at this second-shot Pete Dye design. In two of his four starts at Harbour Town he’s gained at least 4.5 strokes putting. He’ll likely remain a polarizing pay-up option after a lackluster Masters appearance last week.

4. Daniel Berger ($9,600; best finishes: T13-2021, T3-2020): Berger’s dominated some of these shorter, tighter tracks over his career and Harbour Town is no exception. He’s finished T13-T3 at this event the past three seasons and has gained over 2.0 strokes on approach on both occasions.

5. Brian Harman ($7,700; best finishes: T9-2017, T13-2021): Harman continued his solid play at this event/venue last season, posting a top-15 finish, the third of his career at this venue. The two-time PGA TOUR winner has posted top-30 finishes at Hilton Head in four of the past five seasons and remains a consistent DFS threat on these shorter setups.


DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY

Cash Games: Get up to Thomas

Justin Thomas ($11,100) was a favorite bet of many last week, but he never really got himself in serious contention. His T8, though, represented his best finish at Augusta and that should bring him some renewed confidence for this week and going forward. Thomas has been smashing the ball lately and his around the game is clicking well enough that we should not shy away from paying up for him here. For value, we also have tons of players to pair with Thomas, including Adam Hadwin ($7,600) and Matt Kuchar ($7,800), who were both in contention at the Valero and fit this week’s venue extremely well. Hadwin leads this field in proximity stats over the past 24 rounds. Chris Kirk ($8,000) and Kevin Streelman ($7,500) are other names to consider in that range.

Tournaments: Go heavy on Hatton

One overlooked result to come out of the Masters last week was a Tyrrell Hatton ($8,600) weekend blowup that ended with him discussing his dislike for the course. It will likely drive a lot of people away from him in DFS this week, but he’s likely better rested than most of the field after playing quick rounds Saturday and Sunday. He now comes to a flatter, more forgiving track where he finished T3 in 2020. He’ll be a polarizing figure and it should help keep ownership levels low in big fields. Daniel Berger ($9,600) and Si Woo Kim ($8,400 - see below) had less publicized blowups on the weekend and both make for good bounce-back candidates as well. Other GPP targets this week include Russell Knox ($7,300), Matthew NeSmith ($6,600) and Henrik Stenson ($6,500).


Top Recent Form

1. Shane Lowry ($9,800; T3-T12-T13): Lowry had an incredible Masters that was earmarked by a birdie on the final hole that launched him to a T3 finish. He leads this field in strokes gained total stats over the past six events and looks ready to break through soon.

2. Cameron Smith ($10,800; T8-T14): Smith faltered down the stretch at Augusta on Sunday, but ultimately added another top-5 finish to his resume there. He’s grabbed an incredible four top-5 finishes in his last six PGA TOUR starts and remains one of the hottest players on the planet.

3. Adam Hadwin ($7,600; T2-T34): Hadwin could get overlooked this week as he didn't qualify for Augusta, but the Canadian has now posted three straight top-10 finishes on the PGA TOUR. He’s gained 2.0 strokes or more on approach and around the greens in each of his past two starts.

4. Justin Thomas ($11,100; T12-T3): Thomas couldn’t break through at Augusta last week, but the T8 marked his best career finish at that major. His ball-striking has been superb of late and gained him +7.4 strokes on approach at the Valspar two starts ago.

5. Corey Conners ($9,700; T10-T17): Like most of the people on this list this week, Conners has been heating up of late. The Canadian grabbed his third career top-10 finish at Augusta last week and has made four cuts in a row after a slow start to the year.


MY PICK: Si Woo Kim ($8,400)

There are tons of narratives we could follow this week for daily fantasy golf purposes. Top players like Justin Thomas ($11,100) and Shane Lowry ($9,800) are coming off top finishes at Augusta, with a lot of mid-tier players also putting in some surprise performances. Harbour Town has rarely been a place where the outright favorites perform well or grab a win, so looking down off the top names this week is where I’d rather focus.

Kim only finished in T39 last week at Augusta, but it was an eventful four rounds that showcased good fight after an opening-round 76. Kim has now made 10 cuts in a row and gained strokes in all major categories at the Valero on his way to posting a T13 finish there. It’s the same kind of consistency he showcased prior to his win last year at The American Express, which was held at another Pete Dye venue. Kim has landed two top-15 finishes at Harbour Town in five career visits, including a playoff loss back in 2018. He’s playing consistent golf and at $8,400 is the kind of upside play we should be targeting in this range for big GPPs.


MY SLEEPER: Patton Kizzire ($7,100)

Kizzire was one of the more heavily-favored value plays two weeks ago at the Valero, so his missed cut at that event should help drive ownership slightly lower on him this week. Prior to that one missed cut though, Kizzire had been playing solid golf and his struggles at TPC San Antonio were mainly on and around the greens, as he still gained 1.6 strokes on approach in two rounds of play.

The two-time PGA TOUR winner has now gained over a stroke on approach in six straight PGA TOUR starts and is the kind of “spike putter” who could pay off for us with a hot week on the greens, even if his approach game doesn’t take a step up. Both of his wins on the PGA TOUR have come on shorter, technical tracks like Harbour Town and this will be his seventh career start at this event. At just over $7K in price, he looks like solid value and is a player who has multiple avenues of success for us this week.

Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $1M Pitch + Putt [$250K to 1st]



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