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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for April 15

Steve Buchanan breaks down Friday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines, and prop bets.

One of my favorite days for baseball is Friday night. A massive 11-game slate is set and we’re going to talk about it.

Follow me on Twitter or you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24

DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tony Gonsolin, $8,400, Los Angeles Dodgers (-260) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+210) — As they were last night, the Dodgers are the biggest favorites of the night as they take on the Reds. They made easy work of them on Thursday, winning by a score of 9-3, which included a six-run eighth inning. Tony Gonsolin ($8,400) is set to take the mound for the Dodgers in his second start of the season. He started the year off at Coors Field and tossed three innings, allowing one run on five hits and striking out three. He should be stretched out a bit more this time around and show off more of that strikeout upside he possesses, after posting a 10.5 K/9 last season.

The Reds offense hasn’t posed much of a threat in the early going and has been striking out a lot. The 26.1% K% currently ranks the 6th highest in the league while the team slashes .196/.266/.330. The Reds have also hit for very little power in the early going with a .134 ISO, which ranks them 23rd in the league. On an 11-game slate, I’m not locking in Gonsolin as my first pitcher but he certainly is a nice compliment, if you have the salary, to some of the other options on the slate.

Highest Projected Total

Chicago Cubs (+100; 4.5 team total) at Colorado Rockies (-120; 4.5 team total) 10 runs— Despite this being an 11-game slate, it almost feels like a carbon copy of last night. The Cubs and Rockies were also the highest projected total on the slate but only managed to score seven total runs, which put them under the game total of 11. Tonight’s total sits at 10, as we get Marcus Stroman ($9,000) against German Marquez ($7,900). Stroman is very overpriced for someone who doesn’t even strike out a batter per inning. Last season, he ended with a new career-high K/9, which was only 7.9. That said, Stroman induces a ton of ground balls for outs, boasting a career of 57.4%. With all the ground balls, Stroman very rarely allows home runs but the fantasy upside on him is capped.

Marquez, like the majority of the Rockies rotation last season, was better at Coors than they were on the road. Through 103 innings at home, he had a .278 wOBA, a 3.66 FIP and only a 0.79 HR/9. Honestly, those numbers are absurd at Coors. His only downfall was his second-half numbers, as he posted a combined .353 wOBA, and a 4.85 FIP. With the way both pitchers have thrown, I wouldn’t be apt to take the over in this game. Personally, I think this is an overall stay-away spot.

Weather Notes

No weather concerns!

April 15, 2022 Betting Splits

Splits to Start

These stats reflect 2021 numbers until May 1.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, FIP, wOBA
Vladimir Gutierrez, 6.56, .359
Jordan Lyles, 5.66, .347
Ross Stripling, 4.68, .315

Best vs. LHB, FIP, wOBA
Carlos Rodon, 1.55, .260
Drew Rasmussen, 2.45, .239
Tarik Skubal, 2.50, .295

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, FIP, wOBA
Marco Gonzales, 5.72, .344
Tarik Skubal, 5.69, .341
Ross Stripling, 5.54, .347

Best vs. RHB, FIP, wOBA
Freddy Peralta, 2.62, .261
Carlos Rodon, 2.92, .244
Marcus Stroman, 3.31, .286

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays, $10,200 - Rodon is the most expensive option on the board tonight but I really like his matchup against the Rays. Cease has tremendous strikeout upside and faces a team that will provides those in the Rays. Last season, the Rays ended with a 23.8% K% against righties. Rodon finished last season with a 12.2 K/9 and a 14.8% swing-and-miss rate. Those strikeouts were on full display in his in his first outing against the Tigers, whiffing eight through five innings.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Editor’s Note: Yankees OF Aaron Judge is not in the lineup for tonight’s game vs. the Orioles.

Aaron Judge, New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, $5,400 — This matchup for the Yankees overall is a good one, as they take on Jordan Lyles ($7,400). On the mound, Lyles provides very little strikeout upside, continuously struggles with home runs and gives up a lot of hard contact. With that type of profile, it’s quite odd that he would join the Orioles. But get that money, am I right? I mean for someone who pitched half of their games in Texas, having a 1.9 HR/9 is quite bad. With tonight’s game taking place in Baltimore, this sets up well for the Yankees. Last season against righties, Judge posted a .375 wOBA with a .239 ISO and a 141 wRC+. This is not just a great spot for him but the Yankees as a whole.

Save Big by Drafting

Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers, $2,400 — One of the top prospects in all of baseball has already been a difference maker at the major league level. Despite hitting second, hit salary hasn’t been adjusted enough yet, making him a very strong value. In the six games he’s played, Witt Jr has at least 9.0 DKFP in four of those games, including three extra base hits. This will be the first time we see him go against lefty at the major league level but Tarik Skubal ($8,200) had a .341 wOBA, a 5.69 FIP and 34 (!) of the 35 home runs he allowed in 2021.

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