Tuesday always brings a massive slate of baseball games and tonight is no different. With 11 on the board, we have lots to talk about. So stop reading this pointless intro.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Corbin Burnes, $10,500, Milwaukee Brewers (-275) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+220) — The reigning Cy Young Award winner in the National League is set to take the mound for the third time this season and first against the Pirates. He faced this clue twice last season, throwing 11 1/3 innings, allowing four runs on 13 hits and 13 strikeouts, giving him a 3.08 FIP, a 10.3 K/9 and a 3.2 BB/9. He didn’t exactly dominate them but he didn’t struggle either. Burnes bounced back nicely in his last start against the Orioles after the Cubs roughed him up a bit, tagging him for three runs on four hits and only four strikeouts in five innings. The O’s, who can’t hit righties, struck out eight times through seven shutout innings. Thus far this season, the Pirates have been one of the more generous teams when it comes to strikeouts, posting a 25% K% against righties to go with a .318 wOBA, a .117 ISO and a 102 wRC+. This should be viewed as a good spot for Burnes but to be fair, from a fantasy perspective, tonight’s slate is loaded with good pitching options. I would back the Brewers on the run line in this spot at -1.5 (-125) if you’re not looking to pay the heavy moneyline.
Highest Projected Total
Philadelphia Phillies (-130; 6.5 team total) at Colorado Rockies (+110; 5.5 team total) 11.5 runs— It wasn’t fun if you took the over at Coors Field last night, as these teams combined to score five runs despite the over/under at 11. Tonight’s total is even higher at 11.5 with Kyle Gibson ($6,600) matched up against Kyle Freeland ($5,600). You’ll also notice the team totals for both teams are a run higher than last night, with the Phillies at 6.5 and the Rockies at 5.5.
The matchup to target here SHOULD be the Phillies, but they haven’t been trustworthy up to this point. Over the last five games, this offense has scored a total of 18 runs to average 3.6 per game. Unfortunately, 10 of those runs came in one game, meaning they’re down to an average of 2.0 runs per game in the others. Freeland could be the cure, as he’s already pitching his third game at Coors this season. Naturally, he’s been hit hard as the Cubs and Dodgers have touched him up for 10 runs on 14 hits with four walks and seven strikeouts through nine innings. He could be running into some bad luck, as his 10.00 ERA is far off from his 4.99 FIP but Freeland hasn’t exactly pitched well at Coors throughout his career. This Phillies lineup is going to hit lefties extremely hard when all is said and done and I would be more interested in them against Freeland than the Rockies against Gibson.
That said, I’m hesitant about taking this over, as Coors Field has hit the under in 56.8% of their games since 2021.
No weather concerns for tonight!
April 19, 2022 Betting Splits
Follow me on Twitter @SBuchanan24 for daily updates on these splits.
Splits to Start
These stats reflect 2021 numbers until May 1.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, FIP, wOBA
JT Brubaker, 5.34, .353
Framber Valdez, 4.81, .320
Jon Gray, 4.48, .319
Best vs. LHB, FIP, wOBA
Corbin Burnes, 1.49, .248
Nathan Eovaldi, 2.28, .281
Walker Buehler, 3.34, .261
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, FIP, wOBA
Justin Steele, 5.99, .358
Tyler Gilbert, 5.02, .326
JT Brubaker, 4.99, .329
Best vs. RHB, FIP, wOBA
Corbin Burnes, 1.78, .215
Walker Buehler, 2.96, .249
Joe Musgrove, 3.16, .252
Pitcher to Build Around
Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds, $8,600 - At this point, if you’re not targeting against the Reds, you’re doing it wrong. That team is a disaster. Over their last five games, the Reds have averaged a whopping 1.6 runs. One point six. Like, are you kidding me? How is that even possible? Well, whatever, I’ll continue to target against them with Musgrove. This Reds team enters today with the second-highest K% at 27.6% while slashing .181/.254/.287. To see those type of numbers and Musgrove as the seventh-most expensive option on the board is simply too good to be true. He’s by far my favorite on a slate filled with excellent pitching options.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $5,000 — This is a great spot to target Bogaerts, who is at Fenway Park against a weak left-handed pitcher. Yusei Kikuchi ($7,800) is set to take the mound for the Blue Jays and didn’t exactly have an impressive debut. Against the Yankees, he lasted just 3 1⁄3 innings, allowing three runs (two earned) on five hits while walking and striking out two. Kikuchi has some really bad numbers the first time through the batting order, posting a 5.48 FIP, a 1.6 HR/9 and a 5.1 BB/9 with the Mariners last season. He’ll try to combat Bogaerts, who against lefties at Fenway last season owned a .399 wOBA, a .225 ISO and a 151 wRC+.
Save Big by Drafting
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers, $3,400 — Is this a good matchup for Olson against Walker Buehler ($10,700)? Not exactly, but the pricing on Olson is absolutely ridiculous. For reference, he was $4,800 LAST NIGHT. It’s not as if Olson isn’t hitting either, he’s slashing .457/.568/.743 over his last 10 game with two home runs and four doubles. I don’t have a lot of great stats as to why you should play Olson other than the fact that you’re getting a heart of the order guy in the Braves lineup at a massive discount. It’s too cheap to pass up.
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