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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for April 22

Steve Buchanan breaks down Friday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines, and prop bets.

Friday is here. Baseball is here. This article is here.

Follow me on Twitter or you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24

DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jameson Taillon, $7,200, New York Yankees (-190) vs. Cleveland Indians (+160) — Man, I’ll tell you. The Yankees as the biggest favorites on the slate don’t sit well with me. Give this Guardians team some credit, they’re SMASHING the ball up to this point. They currently rank first in the league in runs scored (68) and are slashing .280/.346/.442, all of which either lead the league or is within the top three. While this clearly won’t last forever, I wouldn’t be going out of my way to back a -190 favorite against them.

We’ve only seen Taillon throw for 9 2/3 innings this season, producing a 4.40 FIP (3.72 ERA) with a 7.4 K/9 and a 0.93 BB/9. The biggest obstacle for Taillon in his career has been facing lefties. They can throw a few good bats against him that hit from that side if it’s natural or as a switch-hitter. Jose Ramirez ($5,800) has already gotten off to a massive start this season with four home runs, 20 RBI and a .404 ISO. I’m not saying the Guardians are going to come into this game and crush the Yankees by any means, but I simply don’t see them as the biggest favorite on the slate.

Highest Projected Total

San Francisco Giants (-130; 4.5 team total) at Washington Nationals (+110; 3.5 team total) 8.5 runs— On a slate that includes 13 games, not a single one has an over/under (as I write this early afternoon) over 8.5. Odd? Not really if you look into how the MLB season has started. The under has hit in 60.3% of all games played. I think we’re finally seeing a reaction to the rate that unders are being hit.

That said, this one has the most amount of juice on the over 8.5 at -120. The Giants are in a great spot against the Nationals and more specifically, Patrick Corbin ($6,700). Amazingly, through his first two starts, he HASN’T allowed a home run, which deserves a round of applause. That said, he’s allowed plenty of production, which is shown by his 10 runs on 17 hits he’s given up. The Giants have some very good bats against lefties and I would not by shy about taking the over on their team total of 4.5 runs. Getting men on base against Corbin is the key, as his numbers jump drastically in that situation. Since the beginning of last season, with men on base, not even in scoring position, JUST on base, he has a 5.74 FIP, a 1.8 HR/9 and only a 6.5 K/9.

Weather Notes

Editor’s Note: Tonight’s game between the Rockies and the Tigers has been postponed due to inclement weather.

Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers— This is more of a wait-and-see approach. Tonight will either be without any issue or could be a total washout. Really good analysis here by me but I didn’t go to school to be a weatherman.

April 22, 2022 Betting Splits

Follow me on Twitter @SBuchanan24 for daily updates on these splits.

Splits to Start

These stats reflect 2021 numbers until May 1.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, FIP, wOBA
Eli Morgan, 5.62, .349
Jameson Taillon, 5.21, .316
Bailey Ober, 4.77, .359

Best vs. LHB, FIP, wOBA
Ranger Suarez, 1.70, .151
Corey Kluber, 1.92, .246
Trevor Rogers, 2.35, .304

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, FIP, wOBA
Patrick Corbin, 6.22, .387
Tarik Skubal, 5.69, .341
Ross Stripling, 5.54, .347

Best vs. RHB, FIP, wOBA
Trevor Rogers, 2.60, .259
Freddy Peralta, 2.62, .261
Julio Urias, 2.97, .263

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Justin Verlander, Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $10,500 - I know, Verlander is the most expensive option on the slate. Not exactly groundbreaking to take him but I do like this matchup against the Blue Jays. This lineup, that we all said was going to be big and scary this season, hasn’t exactly played out that way yet. In fact, they currently sit 16th in runs scored (52) while slashing .252/.315/.411. They’ve also been swinging a lot at this point, drawing walks at one of the lowest rates in the league at 6.6%. Verlander has looked great in his first two starts and his strikeout upside remains. Without any real slam dunks on this slate for pitching, Verlander will be my guy.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Jazz Chisholm Jr, Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, $5,500 — Despite hitting as well as he has so far this season, it’s been hard to justify using Chisholm from a fantasy perspective. He (for whatever reason) has been slotted at the bottom of the lineup, either eighth or ninth. Maybe, the Marlins finally realized that’s not the best place for him and penciled him in the leadoff spot. He responded with 16 DKFP, hitting a two-run shot while collecting his fifth-game with double-digit fantasy points. It would be great if he’s leadoff again, as he faces Kyle Wright ($9,300), who is grossly overpriced and has a career .389 wOBA and a 6.12 FIP against lefties.

Save Big by Drafting

Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins, $3,000 — This game has a lot of plays tonight and Braves are full of them. I don’t understand how their pricing is so low but I’m not going to complain. It’s been a very slow start for Trevor Rogers ($6,500), who has already been touched up for 10 runs on 10 hits through 6 23 innings. Ozuna is someone who has historically smashed left-handed pitching and if you go back to 2020, posted a ridiculous .527 wOBA .511 ISO vs. LHP.

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