Monday has a bit of an odd schedule, so tonight’s slate is set to lock at 6:10 p.m. ET. So let’s get into it.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Corbin Burnes, $10,200, Milwaukee Brewers (-195) vs. San Francisco Giants (+165) — With pushing the start time of the slate earlier, we do have Burnes available for daily fantasy lineups. This is his third start of the season and he’s back on track after a rough Opening Day. Granted, he’s taken care of the Pirates and Orioles in the process but he’s gone 14 innings, allowing two runs on seven hits with 18 strikeouts. All of his numbers seem back to normal, including his swing-and-miss rate, which currently stands at 15.7%. The Giants, offensively, have been good but they do strikeout at a fairly high rate. Against righties, they have a 23.4% K% to go with a .322 wOBA, a .153 ISO, and a 112 wRC+. His strikeout upside is one of the highest on the slate and will no doubt make him one of, if not the, most popular option.
Highest Projected Total
Los Angeles Dodgers (-180; 4.5 team total) at Arizona Diamondbacks (+155; 3.5 team total) 9 runs— This is the only game with a total of nine runs. The Dodgers are the big favorites in this one as they take on Merrill Kelly ($7,200). To his credit, he’s been absolutely dominant through three starts. You’d be shocked to know that in 15 1/3 innings, he’s posted a 1.71 FIP, a 10.5 K/9, a 2.9 BB/9 and has yet to allow a home run. It’s not as if he’s had an easy schedule either, facing the Nationals, Astros, and Padres. He’s enjoyed a slight uptick in his velocity as well, which is likely part of the factor for his early success.
This matchup, however, will be his toughest assignment yet. This Dodgers offense has been heating up and is averaging 4.8 runs per game over the last five games. Against righties, they have a .349 wOBA, a .177 ISO, and a 130 wRC+. This team has also been one of the most patient teams in the league, with the second-highest (trailing only the Diamondbacks) BB% at 11.6%. Kelly has exhibited strong command but it’s another element that could make this a tough start for him. Overall, I’m not convinced the Diamondbacks can do their part to help push the over in this one, so I think the under is the play to make.
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April 25, 2022 Betting Splits
Follow me on Twitter @SBuchanan24 for daily updates on these splits.
Splits to Start
These stats reflect 2021 numbers until May 1.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, FIP, wOBA
Framber Valdez, 4.81, .320
Miles Mikolas, 4.56, .325
Kyle Freeland, 4.33, .344
Best vs. LHB, FIP, wOBA
Corbin Burnes, 1.49, .248
Nathan Eovaldi, 2.28, .281
Shane Bieber, 3.13, .330
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, FIP, wOBA
Sammy Long, 5.24, .366
Kyle Freeland, 4.74, .350
Merrill Kelly, 4.48, .356
Best vs. RHB, FIP, wOBA
Corbin Burnes, 1.78, .215
Max Scherzer, 2.68, .233
Shane Bieber, 2.93, .257
Pitcher to Build Around
Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, $8,800 -Walker didn’t have a great start his last time out against the Braves, so that gets us a really good discount for him against the Diamondbacks. Sure, allowing three runs on eight hits with two strikeouts in five innings doesn’t exactly get the juices flowing, but these offenses aren’t even on the same planet. The D-Backs currently lead the league in K% against righties at 27.3% to go with a .294 wOBA, a .149 ISO and an 88 wRC+. Yes, it’s been that bad for Arizona. Take advantage of a very cheap Buehler in a huge bounce back spot.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Nick Castellanos, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies, $5,300 — I’m always looking to load up on Castellanos when he’s facing a lefty. He’s only logged 17 plate appearances against them this season but if you combine that with last year, we’re talking about a .397 wOBA with a .275 ISO and a 146 wRC+. Now he faces Freeland, who has struggled out of the gate. Sure, pitching at Coors Field is not his fault (although he did sign an extension so maybe it is now?) but his strikeouts are down, his command has been off and his 7.71 ERA with a 4.30 FIP isn’t exactly a positive for him.
Save Big by Drafting
Michael Brantley, Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, $3,500 — I really like this price on Brantley, who has dropped $1,000 over the last three games despite averaging 12.7 DKFP in that span. Now he has a matchup against Dane Dunning ($5,200), who has a 4.82 FIP through his 12 2/3 innings. Since joining the majors in the shortened 2020 season, Dunning has posted a .345 wOBA, a 3.71 FIP (which isn’t bad actually) and a 3.6 BB/9 to lefties. $3,500 is simply too cheap for batting second in his potent offense.
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