Monday’s slate is light on baseball action, but we can find some value in the betting market. There are seven games to choose from, and that action gets underway at 6:10 p.m. ET.
Red Sox ML (+110)
The Red Sox face a tough matchup Monday vs. Jose Berrios, who shut them down in their last outing. He limited the Red Sox to just one earned run over six innings, which was easily his best start of the year.
Still, there are reasons to believe the Red Sox can improve on Monday. For starters, they still managed eight hits against Berrios in their last outing, so he was far from dominant. Berrios’ 3.81 xFIP in that outing was significantly worse than his traditional ERA. Berrios has also been extremely hittable to start the season, racking up a 7.70 xERA and 6.70 FIP through his first three outings. He will likely improve on those marks moving forward, but he’s closer to a replacement-level starter than an ace.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox will have Nate Eovaldi on the mound. He was phenomenal last year, pitching to a 2.79 FIP, and he’s racked up a career-best 11.66 strikeouts per nine innings to start the year. Overall, I give them the advantage in this matchup, so I’m happy to grab them at better than even money.
Angels ML (-120)
The Guardians will have former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber on the mound on Monday, so it’s understandable if you’re hesitant to back the Halos. However, Bieber is not the same pitcher that he’s been in the past. His average fastball velocity clocked in at 94.3 miles per hour during his Cy Young season, but he’s down to just 91.3 miles per hour this season. That hasn’t had a huge impact on his production – he owns a 2.25 ERA through his first three starts – but he’s been significantly lucky. Opposing batters have managed just a .205 batting average on balls in play, and they’ve yet to hit a ball over the fence. That makes him a prime regression candidate moving forward.
The Angels seem like the right team to get to Bieber. They rank tied for third in wRC+ against right-handers this season, and they rank first in ISO.
The Angels are also getting some sharp support in this matchup. They’ve received just 34% of the moneyline bets, but they’ve accounted for 47% of the dollars. That’s caused the Angels to move from even money to slight favorites, but -120 is still a reasonable price tag.
Under 8.0 runs (-104)
The lack of scoring has been one of the big themes of the early MLB season. Homers are down, batting averages are down, and runs have been hard to come by. Add it all up, and the under has gone a blistering 138-88-11 to start the season.
That rate won’t continue for the full year, but I think there’s some value with the under in this matchup. The Rangers spent huge money on their offense during the offseason, but that has not led to positive results. They’re just 20th in wRC+ against right-handers to start the season, and they’ll be facing a tough left-hander Monday in Framber Valdez.
The Astros should fare better against right-hander Dane Dunning, but their offense hasn’t been firing on all cylinders to start the season. They’re just 18th in wRC+, and they’re 15th against right-handers. Adding that to the fact that unders have already been insanely profitable to start the season, I’ll take my chances with the pitching in this spot.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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