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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for April 26

Steve Buchanan breaks down Tuesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines, and prop bets.

MLB: Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Big slate. 11 games are being played and we’re excited. If you’re not excited, you will be. So read.

Follow me on Twitter or you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24

DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Luis Severino, $9,200, New York Yankees (-315) vs. Baltimore Orioles (+245) — I wasn’t surprised to see the Yankees as the biggest favorites on this slate going up against the lowly Orioles. I say “lowly” because the team is 6-10 and at the bottom of the American League East. However, of those six wins, two of them came in the last series against the Yankees. Severino did not pitch against them but has been phenomenal through 13 innings. He’s allowed a total of three runs on 14 hits with 14 strikeouts. His 3.07 FIP is right in line with his 2.08 ERA, which shows that he’s been as good as advertised. Even with the Yankees seemingly struggling against this club in the first series, the O’s offense has been nothing short of putrid. Entering this game against righties, they currently own a .274 wOBA with a .088 ISO and a 78 wRC+. They’re also striking out a ton with a K% of 25%, making this a very, very enticing spot for Severino.

Highest Projected Total

Los Angeles Dodgers (-210; 5.5 team total) at Arizona Diamondbacks (+175; 3.5 team total) 9 runs— I was confused why this game had the highest total last night and wouldn’t you know, it went way under the total with four runs. I don’t think we get to the over again tonight either. Tony Gonsolin ($8,200) has been fantastic in his three starts, allowing just one total run through 13 innings against the Braves, Reds and Rockies at Coors. While he’s shown some strong strikeout upside before, he only has a 5.5 K/9 to this point. This certainly could be the game where that changes, as the D-Backs have a league-leading 27.7% K% against righties. The Dodgers team total is currently set at 5.5 runs, which has a very good chance of hitting, I simply don’t trust the Diamondbacks to make up the difference because, ya know, they’re awful. If you don’t believe me (everyone believes me), you’ll see that they’re currently ranked 27th in runs scored with a team 74 wRC+. Take the under again.

Weather Notes

Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals - A delay is likely but once that passes, they should be good for the rest of the evening.

Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees - Rain will be falling all throughout the evening but it won’t be anything heavy.

April 26, 2022 Betting Splits

Follow me on Twitter @SBuchanan24 for daily updates on these splits.

Splits to Start

These stats reflect 2021 numbers until May 1.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, FIP, wOBA
Josiah Gray, 6.61, .339
Zach Davies, 5.88, .356
Jordan Lyles, 5.66, .347

Best vs. LHB, FIP, wOBA
Carlos Rodon, 1.55, .260
Kevin Gausman, 2.71, .263
Eduardo Rodriguez, 2.93, .320

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, FIP, wOBA
Tony Gonsolin, 5.51, .323
Josiah Gray, 5.50, .355
Dallas Keuchel, 5.49, .355

Best vs. RHB, FIP, wOBA
Sandy Alcantara, 2.69, .259
Chris Bassitt, 2.83, .282
Carlos Rodon, 2.92, .244

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox, $8,700 - I’ll admit, I wasn’t sure how Gausman would fare coming back to the American League East. He rejuvenated his career by going to the Giants and it’s translated back in a Jays uniform to this point. Through 18 23 innings, he has a 0.71 FIP (2.89 ERA) a 10.6 K/9 and has yet to walk a batter or give up a home run. Now he’s facing a Red Sox offense who simply cannot score runs right now. Over the last seven games, this team is averaging a whopping 2.1 runs per game and hasn’t scored more than four in that span. Gausman already wiped the floor with this team in his last start, going eight strong innings allowing just one run on seven hits with eight strikeouts and a 1.07 FIP. At $8,700, he can’t be passed up.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Anthony Rizzo, New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles, $5,400 — Rizzo has gotten off to a really good start this season and enters this game averaging just under 10 DKFP. He’s posted over 20 DKFP in two of his last five games and has been hitting for a ton of power, which is noted by his .350 ISO against righties to this point. He draws a very favorable matchup against Jordan Lyles ($5,500) who has historically been crushed by lefties and already has a 5.93 FIP and a .458 wOBA against them this season.

Save Big by Drafting

Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, $3,200 — Bellinger may really be back this time, guys. He’s been crushing the ball lately and has collected six extra-base hits over his last 10 games leading into tonight. With the Dodgers owning one of the highest team totals on the slate, Bellinger is a solid way to help alleviate the high price of a Dodgers stack while not skimping on the production. Facing a familiar foe in Zach Davies ($5,700), Bellinger has a great opportunity to continue his recent hot hitting. Last season against lefties, Davies had a .356 wOBA, a 5.88 FIP and 10 of the 25 home runs he allowed.

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