The Mexico Open has been around since the 1940s, but this is the first year it’s an official PGA TOUR event, with 500 FedEx Cup points available for the winner. This week is also the first year at Vidanta Villarta, which means we don’t have historical data, previous winning odds or insight into how the course will play, especially with the renovations to get the course PGA-ready. Embracing the unknown in this week’s tournament will help us build our betting cards.
For course corollaries, refer to the preview article. Conventionally speaking, the general approach when betting is to find value, which isn’t rocket science. In any market, we’re always trying to search for deals. The difficulty this week is the field is relatively weak, and this is a new course, so it will be tough to prognosticate how the course will play because we haven’t seen it in this capacity.
Taking a ‘wait-and-see’ approach and saving some bets for in-tournament is a valid approach we should consider this week. Still, some golfers present some value with how the course could play.
For a full course preview, key statistics breakdown and additional players to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook, refer to the DraftKings Preview on DraftKings Playbook. Here are the bets we should be considering this week.
All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
He and Gary Woodland (+2000) deserve consideration in this range, with how well they set up at this course. Finau’s length throughout the long irons and off the tee will give him a sizeable advantage over the field on this near 7,500-yard track. Although the driver’s been dodgy recently, he’s still 24th in the field in SG: off the tee and top 5 in approach over the previous 24 rounds. Sprinkle in the fact that his first win was on a similar course with similar weather conditions, Finau should be one of the favorites to contend if he’s able to find success on the greens. Woodland profiles similar to Finau with his long-iron efficiency and hasn’t lost strokes through approach in his previous five measured events. He MC’d at The Masters and THE PLAYERS, but his four other starts dating back to last February are 8-21-5-5. His most recent top 10 at Valero was on TPC San Antonio, another Greg Norman design. Woodland is one of the best low-flight ball strikers on TOUR, which could work wonders in this wind.
Other than Matt Jones (+6500), Hubbard is getting my attention as one of the non-bombers in play this week. A MC at Corales and a 38th at the Puerto Rico Open last month are okay, but what’s above average with his game right now is his ability in par 4 scoring, ranking 20th over the previous 24 rounds and top 10 on par 4s between 450 to 500 yards over the same timeframe. If (or when) this becomes a putting contest, much to the displeasure of Jon Rahm (+35), few are better than Hubbard, who ranks 19th in SG: putting over the previous two dozen rounds.
Like Hubbard, Stuard doesn’t profile as a long hitter but could find success this week. Seventh at Corales Puntacana (2022), 22nd at The Puerto Rico Open (2022) and 27th at Mayakoba last year, to go along with his two runner-up finishes at El Camaleon GC, should give us confidence in his ability to play well here. Stuard is also coming off a top-8 performance in SG: approach (+5.7) at the RBC Heritage, marking the third event in his last five starts that he’s gained over 3.3 strokes with his irons. His putting is inconsistent, but paspalum has proven to ‘help’ struggling short-game players, potentially putting Stuard in play this week.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
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