All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Per usual, I’ll put everything official up on Twitter that I bet on personally. This is a betting guide for this NBA card, and anything I’ve actually bet will include a unit amount.
The Heat have been rolling in this series, and you could make the argument that Miami would’ve swept had Kyle Lowry’s injury not sparked a massive fourth quarter run by the Hawks in Game 3. The Heat had no problem adjusting without Lowry in Game 4, blowing Atlanta out by 24 at home for its third double-digit win of the series. Miami’s two home wins thus far are by a combined 34 points.
Clint Capela was a non-factor in his return in Game 4, putting up just two points and seven rebounds in 21 minutes. He’s clearly not right. But the bigger issue here for Atlanta is that Trae Young is getting completely blanketed by the Heat, which means the rest of the Hawks need to be the scorers that win this game. That just isn’t happening.
As for Young, he has scored 25 or fewer points in all four games of the series thus far, including failing to even reach double-digits in two of the games. I expect Miami to continue to bother Young and close out the series with conviction.
I rarely play a same game parlay, but if you combine Miami on the moneyline with Young’s points under it’s priced pretty reasonably at +140.
This has been the ultimate back-and-forth series, and heading home off a tight loss in a crucial Game 5, it would seem it’s Memphis’ turn to get off to a hot start. If you’re a regular reader of the article or my Twitter content, Grizzlies first quarter team total is no secret. This team generally comes out of the gates hot, and did cash their 1Q TT in both home games of this series. Returning home off a loss, Memphis is in a good spot for a high scoring start yet again.
As for the first half spread, it’s a similar betting angle. The Grizzlies were the best 1H ATS team in the NBA this season, and are in a spot where the series is essentially on the line (they can’t head back to Minnesota down 3-2).
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