clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for April 28

Steve Buchanan breaks down Thursday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines, and prop bets.

MLB: St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

OH MY GOODNESS!!! ALL THE GAMES ARE EARLY TODAY!!!! HURRY!!!

Follow me on Twitter or you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24


DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jameson Taillon, $8,100, New York Yankees (-210) vs. Baltimore Orioles (+175) — For the third day in a row, the Yankees are the biggest favorites on the board against the Orioles. If you haven’t been afraid to lay down some green despite the juice, it’s worked in your favor in both games. This afternoon, Taillon and the Yankees wrap up the series as -210 favorites. He’s been great to start the season, having not allowed more than two runs in all three starts, which includes 4 2/3 innings against the Orioles. In that game, he only struck out two and walked one while throwing 69 pitches. There was a rain delay during this game, so take that into consideration. Taillon’s FIP currently stands at 4.17 in those three starts, so he’s been a bit lucky but that’s where he’s been over the past two seasons. With the way this O’s offense can disappear for a long stretch of time during these games, I would have no issue backing the Yankees. Against righties, the O’s now sport just a .272 wOBA, a .099 ISO and a 77 wRC+.


Highest Projected Total

San Diego Padres (+100; 4.5 team total) vs. Cincinnati Reds (-120; 4.5 team total) 8.5 runs— A very rare event is occurring, as the Reds are FAVORITES on the afternoon. This is the third time this season they’ve been favorites and are 0-2 in those scenarios. That said, the Reds have also been one of the best teams at hitting the over this season, going 9-8-1. It’s mostly because of the OTHER teams dumping runs all over them, not necessarily from the Reds doing their part. I mean, when your team is a -51 run differential, that tells you all you need to know.

The Reds are the favorites, however, as they pitch Tyler Mahle ($7,600) against Nick Martinez ($7,000). Martinez has really struggled with his command since rejoining the Major Leauge, posting a 6.1 BB/9. His advanced stats are even worse, with a 7.99 FIP and a 3.07 HR/9. It’s hard to trust the Reds offense but Martinez truly has not been good in a Padres uniform. Meanwhile, Mahle has been much better than advertised, as his 6.88 ERA doesn’t even come close to his 2.43 FIP. While Mahle has also been struggling with his command, evidenced by his 4.8 BB/9, he’s been pitching much better than we’ve seen.

This is a tough total to nail on but I would be likely to take over 8.5.


Weather Notes

Kanas City Royals at Chicago White Sox - Gross weather all around for this game. It’s cold, rainy and they may not even play. Take another look before first pitch is thrown.


April 28, 2022 Betting Splits

Follow me on Twitter @SBuchanan24 for daily updates on these splits.


Splits to Start

These stats reflect 2021 numbers until May 1.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, FIP, wOBA
Jameson Taillon, 5.21, .316
Bailey Ober, 4.77, .359
Brad Keller, 4.31, .359

Best vs. LHB, FIP, wOBA
Michael Kopech, 2.44, .246
Tarik Skubal, 2.50, .295
Zack Wheeler, 2.62, .260


Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters


Worst vs. RHB, FIP, wOBA
Patrick Corbin, 6.22, .421
Jose Quintana, 5.73, .387
Tarik Skubal, 5.69, .341

Best vs. RHB, FIP, wOBA
Zack Wheeler, 2.56, .253
Freddy Peralta, 2.62, .261
Michael Kopech, 3.38, .303


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates, $7,700 - It’s been a really rough start to the season for Peralta, who through the first two starts allowed nine runs on 10 hits through just seven innings of work. Despite getting hit hard, one aspect remained and that was his ability to strike hitters out. He then turned his best start of the season last time out against the Phillies, holding them to one run on three hits with six strikeouts through five innings. Now he faces one of the most strikeout prone teams in the league, who boast a 26.6% K% against righties. Peralta, despite his struggles, has a K/9 of 12 and a 12.6% swing-and-miss rate. Because of his first two starts, you’re getting him at a big discount.


Stud Hitter to Pay For

Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies, $6,100 — Harper continues his torrid pace at the plate, averaging 11.2 DKFP over his last 10 games. During that span, he’s collected 15 hits, which include two home runs, four doubles, a triple and six RBI. Harper boasts a really strong matchup this afternoon against Antonio Senzatela ($6,300) who just got rocked by the Tigers his last time out. Lefties were a problem for him last season, allowing a .355 wOBA and only a 5.1 K/9 against them. When he was on the road, those numbers jumped to a .413 wOBA, a 1.2 HR/9 and a 4.82 FIP.


Save Big by Drafting

Kyle Garlick, Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers, $2,000 — I always find myself playing Garlic when he’s starting against a lefty. Something about a cleanup hitter at the bare minimum pricing usually gets my attention. He’s a likely candidate to be lifted once Skubal is out of this game so the hope is he can do something in the couple of at-bats he registers. Garlick draws these starts because against lefties last season, he had a .363 wOBA with a .305 ISO and a 131 wRC+. Skubal was no stranger to giving up power last year (but has been much better thus far), so the matchup makes sense. Just be prepared for two or three at-bats for him.


For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DraftKings Sportsbook app.


Major League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with the permission of the applicable MLB entity. All rights reserved.


If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), visit OPGR.org (OR), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).

21+ (18+ NH/WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.