Martin Truex Jr. came up a little short at Richmond (+1000), but the “Featured Matchups” picks were 2-1 and were one spot away from a prefect 3-0. Let’s keep the wins coming by looking through the data while being cognizant of context. Trust the spreadsheet but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 400 at Martinsville, which gets underway Saturday April 9 at 7:30 p.m. ET.
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Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 400 Winner
Kyle Busch +1000
There comes a time when you put the spreadsheet aside. Table the analytics and trust your eyes. Kyle Busch could have multiple wins this season. He nearly won the preseason opener at the short, flat track in the LA Coliseum. A pit road gamble by Hendrick stole his Las Vegas win. Last week, NASCAR decided to arbitrarily black flag Busch during the most consequential part of the race. The penalty could have been enforced during a less pivotal moment, but NASCAR chose to knee cap Busch during the final run.
Everything within Busch’s control is working. As predicted, the return of practice has led to the rejuvenation of Kyle Busch. He’s fast, his car is fast and his pit crew is fast. Last Fall, Busch nearly won at Martinsville despite having a 10th-place car. With practice, it’s very likely that Busch gets the car dialed in and unleashes his frustration on the field.
Featured Matchup: Chase Elliott vs. Denny Hamlin
Chase Elliott -120
Last fall at Martinsville, Elliott’s car faded a little during the final 100 laps, and that’s exactly when Hamlin’s car came alive. This year’s Martinsville race has been shrunk from 500 laps down to 400. That could benefit Elliott, but then again, last fall’s race was a day race and this will be a night race, so it’s possible that both drivers could miss on their setups. Hamlin was due and broke through last week, this week it’s Elliott's turn, and he finely gets the result he deserves.
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Featured Matchup: Kyle Busch vs. Kyle Larson
Kyle Busch -115
The case for Busch was made above, so this will be the case against Larson. In previous seasons, this would be an easy bet, but Larson is close to figuring out Martinsville. Last week, he demonstrated that he is rapidly developing at short, flat tracks — his last remaining weakness. Larson had the pole and was sitting on two wins going into the penultimate race of the 2021 season at Martinsville. With not much to gain, his team treated that race as a complete learning experience. It’s possible that Larson could be ready to teach a lesson at Martinsville on Saturday night, but it’s safe to expect one more race as a student. Give the edge to the cantankerous Professor Busch.
Featured Matchup: Martin Truex Jr. vs. William Byron
Martin Truex Jr. -160
The Richmond showdown that was not to be. Neither Truex or Byron won last week. The real winner was new tires. Byron and Truex had the best cars at the short, flat track in Richmond, but they did not have the freshest tires. Both have been great at Martinsville. Truex has been better longer, but this track has clicked for Byron and a win at this historic track is just around the corner. Martinsville means a lot to Hendrick, but JGR has been just as strong at Martinsville without the added motivation. The edge goes to Truex because he won the only true night race at Martinsville.
Featured Matchup: Ross Chastain vs. Ryan Blaney
Ryan Blaney -150
Everything is looking good this season for Ross Chastain, but Martinsville is a different monster. He can have a fast car and pit crew, but it won’t matter if he hasn’t mastered The Paperclip in Southside Virginia. Blaney has mastered this track. He had the best car at Martinsville last spring, but a penalty during the final pit stop cost him the win. His former crew chief Todd Gordon chose to copy the setup for the fall race, but it did not work in the day race. Blaney’s 11th-place finish seems disappointing on the page, but for those that watched Blaney battle for 500 laps with a poor setup and a damaged race car, his finish perfectly illustrates his mastery.
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All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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