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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for April 8

Steve Buchanan breaks down Friday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Opening Day was so massive, that they had to make a sequel. Baseball games will be on all throughout the day but this article will focus on the five-game slate that begins at 7:05 p.m. ET. So, ya know, let’s get to it.

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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Charlie Morton, $8,400, Atlanta Braves (-190) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+160) — The Braves were also the biggest favorites yesterday AND THAT DIDN’T GO WELL! The Reds dropped from the rafters like Sting used to do and put six runs on the board against the defending World Champions. Tonight, despite a lopsided matchup, the line is very similar to what we saw on Opening Day.

The Reds are rolling out Reiver Sanmartin ($7,800), who’ll be making his third major league start. He was up for a cup of coffee last season, throwing 11 23 innings, posting a 1.80 FIP, an 8.4 K/9, and an 11% swing-and-miss rate. Sanmartin threw almost all four pitches evenly, featuring a fastball (28.2%), slider (27.6%), changeup (24.3%) and sinker (19.9%) last season. The problem for him tonight will be against a very strong lineup against lefties. The man who would have topped the list against lefties last year is their newest acquisition Matt Olson ($5,500). In 254 plate appearances against them, he had a 159 wRC+, a .338 ISO, and a .398 wOBA. It’s hard to trust Sanmartin against this lineup, especially for someone who has averaged under a strikeout per innings throughout his minor league career. If you’re willing to pay the heavy juice, the Braves feel like a safe play with the Reds starter talent dropping off dramatically from yesterday.

Highest Projected Total

Houston Astros (+100; 4.5 team total) at Los Angeles Angels (-120; 4.5 team total) 9.5 runs— Last season, these were two of the best teams at hitting the over on their game total. The Astros did it 56% of the time (3rd) while the Angels were right behind them at 54.7% (4th). Tonight features Jake Odorizzi ($5,800) against Reid Detmers ($6,600). Not exactly two starters I would consider second in the rotation. We didn’t see either pitcher much during Spring Training, as Detmers tossed 5 23 innings and Odorizzi only pitched two. Both have made side sessions to build up their pitch count but I wouldn’t be surprised if either goes deep into the game.

With this in mind, we could see a rather heavy bullpen game. I think it’s fair to say that both bullpens will be strong on both sides this season, so I wouldn’t necessarily call this an advantage for either side. If anything, the offense could come early in this one and quiet down thereafter. Personally, I’d be more comfortable taking the over on the 1H total, in which both teams have a 2.5 total with +100 for the over on each side.

Weather Notes

New York Mets at Washington Nationals - Yesterday saw a delayed start and we could that once again. It’s not a totally safe game, as storms could pop up during the evening. Check for a weather update closer to first pitch.

April 8, 2022 Betting Splits

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, FIP, wOBA
Josiah Gray, 6.61, .339
Jon Gray, 4.48, .335
Jake Odorizzi, 4.26, .335

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Charlie Morton, 2.94, .255
Sean Manaea, 3.21, .255
Max Scherzer, 3.28, .264

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, FIP, wOBA
Josiah Gray, 5.50, .355
Jake Odorizzi, 4.64, .299
Jon Gray, 3.89, .326

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Max Scherzer, 2.68, .233
Jose Berrios, 2.99, .240
Charlie Morton, 3.40, .271

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds, $8,400 - I think it’s fair to say that the pitching selection on this slate is quite lackluster. Despite the Reds roughing up Max Fried last night, I think they’ll have problems with Morton this evening. Fried was having issues putting Reds hitters away last night despite having two strikes on numerous occasions. Morton is a much better strikeout pitcher, posting a 10.7 K/9 and a 12.3% swing-and-miss rate last season. When Morton was ahead in the count last season, which was often, he held opposing batters to a .245 wOBA and a 37.2% K%.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Jared Walsh, Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros, $5,200 — When we think about the power the Angels lineup has, Walsh isn’t going to be the first or even second name you bring up. However, he was mashing against righties last season, to the tune of a .415 wOBA, a .256 ISO, and a 166 wRC+. Those numbers were just as good at home against righties with a .404 wOBA, a .232 ISO, and a 159 wRC+. He’ll face off against Odorizzi, who has always had issues against lefties. Last season, Odorizzi was tagged with a 4.26 FIP (5.20 xFIP), a .335 wOBA, and five of the 16 home runs he’s allowed. After not getting a ton of work during Spring Training, I think he’ll struggle out of the gate.

Save Big by Drafting

Robinson Cano, New York Mets at Washington Nationals, $2,400 — If Cano is going to draw the start against righties, he’s a solid value at $2,400. Yesterday, we saw him hit sixth in the ‘Mets' order and go 2-for-4 with two singles, two runs scored and a walk. A nice 12 DKFP day for only $2,000. Tonight, he’ll face Josiah Grey ($7,600), who posted some really poor numbers against both sides of the plate. His 6.61 FIP is the worst against lefties on this slate to go with a .339 wOBA. It won’t take much for Cano to return value.

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