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Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Targets for Suns vs. Mavericks Showdown on May 10

Stan Son gives his top picks for today’s Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Suns and Mavericks.

Homecourt has prevailed in the series between the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks. The Dallas defense, in particular, tightened the screws and clouded up the Suns, holding them to 101 and a season-low 94 points after scoring 121 and 129 points in Phoenix. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Suns favored by six points, with the total at 213 for Game 5 in Phoenix.

Let’s go over the fantasy outlook for the game for Showdown contests on DraftKings.


Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $300K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st] (DAL vs PHX)


Captain’s Picks

Luka Doncic ($19,500) - Doncic is the highest-priced player by a whopping $4,200 over the next player, so decisions will have to be made. It truly will come down to roster construction and projected ownership. That said, he has the highest floor/ceiling on the slate. He’s attempted 30, 22, 25 and 25 shots while the usage rate has been 41% in this series. Doncic is a threat to triple-double on any given night and has 70-DKFP upside, something he did 12 times during the regular season, with two of those over 80. In this series, he’s put up 75, 52.75, 59.75 and 57.25 DKFP. HalleLuka!

Chris Paul ($14,700) - Paul has been dreadful the last two games, putting up 23.25 and 26.25 DKFP. In Game 4, he was in foul trouble for much of the game and ended up fouling out after playing only 23 minutes. This is a recency bias play as the ownership could be a little muted, as Devin Booker ($15,300) will likely be the preferred option if going with a Suns player. I expected a bounce back game from Paul in Game 4 but foul trouble did him in. I’m going right back to the well. Paul is too good of a player and the Suns are returning home, where they should be able to dictate the action a little better. Paul has yet to dish out double-digit assists in this series and has scored over 20 points just once. One or both of those things could happen. During the regular season, Paul went for at least 50 DKFP 12 times with three of those over 60. In the New Orleans series, he went over 50 DKFP four times with a high of 64.25.

FLEX Plays

Maxi Kleber ($6,600) - Kleber is a big-man, 3-and-D player. He has blocked five shots and racked up three steals this series while scoring in double-figures in three of the four games. That’s translated to 24.75, 18.25, 30.75 and 21.25 DKFP. During the regular season, the Suns boosted the FPPM to centers by 17.02% above the league average, with a 27.52% increase in three-pointers.

Value

JaVale McGee ($3,800) - McGee averages 1.29 DKFP per minute. Production is never an issue with McGee, but playing time is. He’s played 10, 15, 10 and 14 minutes this series. That said, he’s scored double-digit DKFP in every game and does have 20-DKFP upside if things break right.

Fades

Dorian Finney-Smith ($7,400) - Finney-Smith has played 39, 42, 21 and 41 minutes this series. It’s always tough to fade a player that is on the court so much. That said, he’s a low-usage player who is coming off a 41.5 DKFP performance. He shot 8-for-13 from downtown in that one, good for 24 points. That was only the fourth time this season that he’s scored at least 20 points. The ownership will likely be high as well due to recency bias and he averages 0.71 DKFP per minute.

Deandre Ayton ($9,000) - The ceiling seems muted for Ayton this series. Outside of Game 2 in which he played only 18 minutes due to a blowout, Ayton has played 33 minutes in every other game and gone for 37, 31.25 and 34.25 DKFP. He’s grabbed double-digit rebounds in the last two games and blocked two shots in Game 4, but he has a total of three in the series and doesn’t do much outside of scoring and rebounding.

The Outcome

The Suns shot 50.5% and 64.5% in the first two games at home. In Dallas, that plummeted to 44.7% and 46.4%. They have outrebounded the Mavericks in every game but lost the turnover battle by nine and six in Dallas. That spread was one and zero in Phoenix. The Suns were the best team during the regular season, and I expect them to play well at both ends of the floor at home.

Final score: Suns 120, Mavericks 112

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $300K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st] (DAL vs PHX)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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