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Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Targets, Values for May 11

Matt LaMarca gives his top studs and value plays at each position for tonight’s fantasy basketball slate on DraftKings.

The NBA playoffs are heating up, and we have two more massive contests on Wednesday. The action gets underway with Game 5 between the Celtics and Bucks at 7:00 p.m. ET. This series is currently tied at two games apiece, so whoever wins on Wednesday will be in the driver’s seat.

The nightcap features Game 5 between the Grizzlies and Warriors. The Warriors won both games in San Francisco, so they have a chance to close out the Grizzlies on Wednesday. Overall, it should be another great night of basketball.

Let’s dive into some of the top studs and values at each position to help with your DraftKings NBA lineups.


Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $450K Shootaround [$100K to 1st]


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Point Guard

Stud

Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics ($8,200) – Holiday has been asked to take on a larger offensive role with Khris Middleton sidelined in this series. He’s posted a usage rate of 29.7% vs. the Celtics, which represents a massive increase from his regular season average of 23.5%. That jives with Holiday’s marks during the regular season, where he led the team with a 4.8 percentage point usage rate bump with Middleton off the floor. Holiday has also played at least 40.9 minutes in each of the past two games, and he should be looking at another sizeable workload in a crucial Game 5.

Other Options – Stephen Curry ($9,500)

Value

Tyus Jones, Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors ($4,900) – Jones is easily the top value on Wednesday’s slate. Ja Morant has been ruled out for Game 5 vs. the Warriors, and he’s doubtful to suit up for the remainder of the postseason. The Grizzlies’ postseason run would end with a loss on Wednesday, but expect them to give a solid effort at home. They actually increased their Net Rating with Morant off the floor during the regular season, and they were 20-2 in their first 22 games without Morant.

Jones entered the starting lineup in place of Morant on Monday, and he provided elite production. He racked up 37.0 DraftKings points over 41.2 minutes, and Jones has thrived in that role all year. He’s increased his production to 0.90 DKFP per minute in games without Morant, so he’s nearly impossible to fade at his current price tag.

Other Options – Marcus Smart ($5,900)


Shooting Guard

Stud

Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks ($8,300) –Brown is coming off a down performance in Game 4, finishing with just 25.25 DKFP over 32.1 minutes. He struggled with foul trouble, and he was also a bit less aggressive offensively, with his usage rate of 22.6% serving as a new postseason low. Brown isn’t a priority pay-up target on this slate, but expect him to bounce back a bit on Wednesday.

Other Options – Desmond Bane ($6,400)

Value

Pat Connaughton, Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics ($3,800) – The Bucks have played a bit of a smaller lineup in their past two games, with Grayson Allen replacing Bobby Portis as a starter. Connaughton has also seen a larger role off the bench, racking up at least 30.3 minutes in back-to-back games. He’s responded with at least 24.0 DKFP in both contests, which is nice production at a sub-$4k price tag. He’s a capable per minute producer – he averaged 0.77 DKFP per minute this season – so he should continue to return value with increased playing time.

Other Options – Derrick White ($3,700)


Small Forward

Stud

Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks ($9,600) – Tatum had another quiet first half in Game 4, but he put together a massive second half to help lead the Celtics to victory. He finished with 21 points, six rebounds, and five assists in the final 24 minutes, and he finished with 55.75 DKFP for the game.

Tatum has also seen a slight price decrease for Game 5, which makes him a bit more palatable. He doesn’t have the same upside as Giannis Antetokounmpo, but he has the potential to outscore everyone else on Wednesday’s slate.

Other Options – Klay Thompson ($7,400)

Value

Dillon Brooks, Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors ($5,600) – Brooks finished with 31.25 DKFP in Game 4 vs. the Warriors, which was enough for him to return value. Still, his performance could’ve been so much better. He was unusually productive in the peripheral categories, tallying eight assists and five rebounds, but he struggled as a scorer. He made just five of 19 shots from the field and two of nine shots from 3-point range, so he should progress in both areas on Wednesday. Brooks averaged 1.04 DKFP per minute in games without Morant during the regular season, and he played nearly 39 minutes in Game 4. He’s a steal at just $5,600.

Other Options – Grayson Allen ($3,900)


Power Forward

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics ($11,600) – With so much value available with the Grizzlies, locking in Antetokounmpo is a no-brainer. He continues to put up absurd numbers, even in a brutal matchup vs. the Celtics. He’s scored at least 63.5 DKFP in three of his past four games, and he’s increased his usage rate to 42.4% in this series. Antetokounmpo posted a usage rate of 34.9% during the regular season, and he averaged 1.76 DKFP per minute. That means his upside with a usage rate of greater than 40% is absurd.

Other Options – Draymond Green ($6,200)

Value

Otto Porter Jr., Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies ($4,200) – Otto Porter has been a solid yet unspectacular producer for the Warriors in this round of the playoffs. He’s racked up at least 21.2 minutes in all four games vs. the Grizzlies, and he’s returned positive value in each of them. That includes three performances with at least 22.0 DKFP. He has gotten a bit more expensive of late, but his $4,200 salary remains reasonable. He’s averaged 0.93 DKFP per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to return value.

Other Options – Kyle Anderson ($4,300)


Center

Stud

Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors ($6,700) – Jackson might be the sneakiest option for the Grizzlies on Wednesday. He led the team in usage in games without Morant during the regular season, and he posted a 30.3% usage rate sans Morant on Monday. He finished with 41.25 DKFP over 33.9 minutes, but his numbers were kept in check by some pedestrian shooting. JJJ was just 7-21 from the field and 0-7 from 3-point range, and he should be better in both areas on Wednesday. Overall, he has massive upside for his salary.

Other Options – Al Horford ($7,300)

Value

Steven Adams, Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors ($3,400) – Adams is easily the best punt play on Wednesday’s slate. He re-entered the Grizzlies’ starting lineup in Game 4 and provided huge value, finishing with 37.75 DKFP over 27.2 minutes. The Grizzlies were also +13 with Adams on the court, so expect a similar role for him in Game 5. Adams has averaged 1.03 DKFP per minute this season, so he’s a great bet to return value with around 26 minutes.

Other Options – Brook Lopez ($4,800)

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $450K Shootaround [$100K to 1st]


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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