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MLB Picks for May 11: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Nick Friar provides MLB betting trends along with his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for May 11.

There’s not shortage of MLB action on Wednesday, with games spread out all throughout the day. As we turn our focus to DraftKings Sportsbook, we’ll focus on the games being played later in the day.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.


Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Angels over 3.5 runs -110

As much as this play might seem related to L.A.’s onslaught on Tuesday, it’s not. The Angels are facing a much different pitcher in Shane McClanahan on Wednesday, so we can’t put much stock in what happened in the Angels’ 12-0 win.

While the Tampa Bay lefty is one of the top young arms in the game, the Angels aren’t likely to see much of him on Wednesday. The Rays have been very strict with his pitch count, and he’s only been able to log six-plus innings twice as a result. And while he might rack up some strikeouts, McClanahan has given up two-plus runs every start since he threw 4 1/3 scoreless to open 2022.

While the Angels aren’t as tough on lefties as they are on righties, they are top six in OPS and wOBA against left-handed pitching. Additionally, L.A. has the third-lowest soft-contact rate against left-handed pitching — so they aren’t getting cheated.


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Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins

Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases -115

Alvarez has gone quiet over the last four games, but that only means the big man is due. With the Twins trotting out Chris Archer, Houston’s designated masher will have a matchup that provides opportunities to cover this number with one swing.

While Archer has been solid to start the season, he hasn’t been great against left-handed hitters. Their 39.1% hard-contact rate against the Minnesota righty has led to a .393 wOBA. In 58 plate appearances, Alvarez has a 42.5% hard contact rate against right-handers. That has led to a .449 ISO and .459 wOBA against righties. And since he only has a .182 BABIP against right-handed pitching, Alvarez is likely to experience struggles in the near future. If you’re looking for a home run play, backing Alvarez at +235 on DraftKings Sportsbook to snap his six-game homerless streak is a good way to go.


St. Louis Cardinals vs. Baltimore Orioles

Juan Yepez over 1.5 total bases +115

At some point, the Cardinals rookie will go a game without a hit. With Spenser Watkins opposite him in this contest, Wednesday isn’t likely to be that day. Although the rest of his teammates haven’t done much against right-handers to start the season, five of Yepez’s 10 hits have come off of right-handed pitching. Three of those hits have been doubles and one was a home run.

As for Watkins, right-handed hitters have a 34.9% hard-contact rate against him. They’ve gotten to him for six doubles and three home runs in 56 plate appearances, and his 39.5% fly-ball rate indicates he’s likely to run into some problems on Wednesday. If you’re looking for a slightly better payout on a home run play, Yepez is +400 on DraftKings Sportsbook to go yard.


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is dk-nfriar) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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